RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Murky sales report imoSo, if the new normal quarterly sales base was $16.2 million last quarter then Q3 could be $17 million and Q4 $17.8 million. If Trogazo sale don't go down then Q3 and Q4 revenue could be about $23 and $24 million. So, just falling short of guidance. But at least we're going in the right direction.
Of course, I could be misinterpreting Dubuc's statement.
palinc2000 wrote: Dubuc during the last CC
For the second quarter of fiscal 2024, net sales of EGRIFTA SV reached $16.2 million compared to $10.9 million in Q2 of last year, which represents a 49% increase year-over-year. Recall that Q2 2023 sales were negatively affected by inventory drawdowns. As mentioned previously, inventory levels have reverted to normal levels and should continue to be stable going forward. For the six-month period ended May 31st, EGRIFTA revenues have grown 9.4%, a level which is more in line with what key performance indicators, such as new enrollment and total unique patients are showing.
palinc2000 wrote: I meant math and assumptions..
I took Egrifta historical revenues and trend to make a wild guess
May be others can offer better inputs
juniper88 wrote: The math is simple, I don't believe anyone needs to check it.
The question is are the inputs into the equation correct? How did you come up with how much inventory restocking was done? We just don't know.
To me it is a matter or trust. Do we now believe management that somehow they will get $24 million in sales in each of the next 2 quarters? And I don't believe management would be able to just do more inventory restocking to achieve that. The resellers wouldn't go for that.
So, either PL has finally figured out how to sell Egrifta or this report and their guidance is BS. Or it is somewhere in between. We will see in the next 2 quarters. Even if they try to obfusicate with an acquisition.
As for you assumption, I am more likely to trust your assumptions at this time than their murky report.
palinc2000 wrote: If you exclude the inventory restocking in the 2 nd quarter sales to patients in the 2 nd quarter were probably no more than 12 millions for Egrifta
Assuming Trog sales are flat at 6 million per quarter in the next 2 quarters then Egrifta sales to patients need to increase to 18 millions in each of the next 2 quarters to reach the yearly guidance
IF my calculations are correct then they have not imo shown why we should believe them
Can anyone check my math?
Am at a car dealer and dont have time to go deeper
SPCEO1 wrote: It would be amazing if they were able to maintain sales at the $22 million level seen in the 2Q as Palin suggested following the benefit from the inventory restocking. Also, they need to average $24.3 million in sales over the last two quarters in order to meet the low end of gudiance. Nothing they have shared would indicate we should expect two consecutive simultaneous record sales quarters. Trogarzo sales are slowly dwindling and Egrifta sales are good but likely not that good.
My guerss is they hope to do an acquisition and they will reset guidance at that point as it will be a bit buried in the details of the acquisition so they hope it will be harder to notice.
All that being said, the quarter was a good one and there is real hope for the company to do an acquisition, finally; renegotiate their debt with Marathon or do a new debt financing deal to pay off the $40 million first tranche at better terms, get F8 approved and hopefully have some good news on TH1902 that leads to rewarding partnership deals.