TD Notes THE GAS LINE
THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
Weekly Natural Gas Charts
Storage Build Below Expectations; Well Below Historical Average: Storage levels increased 10 Bcf w/w, versus consensus of a 25 Bcf injection and the 5-year average build of 47 Bcf. Since early May, we have seen nearly all storage builds come in below historical levels. Nine of the last 10 weeks have posted below-average storage builds. In our view, this is directly the result of supply erosion we have seen since late 2023 and robust demand.
U.S. storage levels are now 17% above the five-year average (down from 41% mid-March) and 8% above year-ago levels (down from 21% mid-March). Expectations for next week are for an injection of 10-30 Bcf, compared to the five-year average injection of 30 Bcf.
U.S. Supply Up Slightly w/w; Now ~4% Below Highs Seen Late 2023: U.S. volumes are ~102 Bcf/d, up from last week (~101 Bcf/d) and down from ~106 Bcf/d in December 2023. The U.S. natural gas rig count was down 1 w/w to 100 rigs.