Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Alternate Symbol(s): ATHOF

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Athabasca Oil Corporation (AOC) is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets. AOC’s segments include Light Oil and Thermal Oil. The Thermal Oil segment includes the Company’s assets, liabilities and operating results for the exploration, development and production of bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations located in the Athabasca region of Northern Alberta. It also consists of two operating oil sands steam assisted gravity drainage projects and a resource base of exploration areas in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The Light Oil segment includes its assets, liabilities and operating results for the exploration, development and production of light crude oil and medium crude oil, tight oil and conventional natural gas. Its Light Oil segment consists exclusively of the Duvernay in the Greater Kaybob area with about 155,000 gross acres across Kaybob West, Kaybob North, Kaybob East and Two Creeks.

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Post by retiredcfon Jul 22, 2024 8:57am

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Post# 36142397

RBC Preview

July 19, 2024

Athabasca Oil Corporation
2Q Preview—Dramatic Sequential Increase Expected in Bottom Line Results

TSX: ATH | CAD 5.32 | Sector Perform | Price Target CAD 6.00

Sentiment: Neutral

Athabasca Oil will report its second-quarter results after market close on Wednesday, July 24.

2Q Preview

RBC vs. Consensus (Analyst Survey): RBC sits slightly below Street consensus on FFO/share, while in line on production and capital spending.

Conference Call

• Time: TBA, Thursday, July 25. • Dial-in: TBA

FFO/share Production Capital Spending

RBC

$0.27
36,717 boe/d
$50 million

Street

$0.28
36,673 boe/d
$50 million

Note: Consensus estimates based on ATH’s sell-side analyst survey. FFO/share calculated upon RBC’s estimate for diluted shares outstanding. Source: Athabasca Oil, RBC Capital Markets estimates.

Observations

• Our second-quarter outlook for Athabasca incorporates production of 36,700 boe/d amid oil & liquids production of 36,100 bbl/ d (98% of equivalent production).

At Leismer, we peg Athabasca’s second-quarter production at 26,500 bbl/d, with production rates of 7,000 bbl/d at Hangingstone.
We peg second-quarter oil & liquids realizations at about $78/bbl, amid operating costs of $11/bbl and an 11% royalty rate.
On the shareholder returns front, our outlook factors in $77 million of share repurchases in the second-quarter.
All said, our second-quarter FFO estimate for Athabasca sits at $150 million ($0.27 per share) with an estimated free funds flow (before working capital movements) of $100 million in the context of $50 million of capital investment. This compares with the company’s first-quarter FFO of $88 million ($0.15 per share).