RE:unexpected weaker Q2 US refining margins being reported...CVE heavy oil is 6x MEG so profitability / cashflow should be 6x as well. It barely is even though they have US refining, Cdn refining, Cdn gas assets and offshore.
First things first, CVE is an oil sands producer. That part of the business needs to get more profitable, changes need to be made.
Second, they need to unload Asian & Cdn offshore. Not core at all. Will get money from it too.
Third, they need to spin off US refining - obviously not core, Core+ maybe but they're simply not good at it from what I can tell - the best laid (grandiose?) plans often go awry.
The rest - Cdn refining & Cdn natural gas - is core+ but should make money standalone...the interesting thing about conventional (condensate and natural gas) are those are big cost of goods sold - arguably more value add there than there is in refining.
Normally this kind of situation is resolved in 2 ways: The board brings in a new CEO who will make major changes, or an activist investor comes in and imposes changes on the Board. They either do it themselves or someone else will do it for them. Problem is Pourbaix owns the refining plan and he's Executive Chairman....
That said, its not too bad now so with new management and BoD, the stock would rise IMO. Just don't know when.
I'll do a comparison of MEG with CVE for Q2 to see if what I posted makes any sense.