Share Price vs Production TimingTo me the question of when does a stock price respond to production beginning, ramp up, commercial production, continued ramp up, and add in an increasing commodity price.
Picking only one recent model the share price of IamGold (IMG on TSX) is a potential model for Almonty. IMG recently announced commercial production at their Cote mine in Canada. Before Cote they had two operating mines that weren't highly profitable and it took a long time and a lot of money to get Cote going. Gold prices have been going up, Cote started production and IMG share price started moving up, Cote hit commercial production and had improved production guidance from their other two mines and prices went up even more. It appears now the market is pricing in some of their future earnings from Cote.
Comparing to Aii, Aii has some existing production though not highly profitable, has been developing Sangdong for a long time (hasn't cost a ton of money, but lots of time), production starting we think is imminent, prices are strong for tungsten, and they have some other announceables upcoming with the downstream project. Then in September ish, the development for phase 2 is expected to begin to expand future production capability.
My thought is once Almonty announces production starting at Sangdong we should see some significant share price appreciation, then more once they reach commercial production. I do not believe the market will wait until financials from Sangdong are available because I believe the market often prices in predictions for future.
Hopefully we know more soon.
I found the update on feelings about Sangdong and the government's past involvement to be very interesting and a very good explanation for Lewis operating quietly.