A path to $2.00 a share
With gold at $2,500 Orvana should achieve EBITDA of >$40 million over the next 12-months. Canadian intermediate gold companies trade at 5xEV/EBITDA on spot gold (RBC report). With $35 million in debt Orvana, at a multiple of 5x EV/EBITDA, should trade at $1.22.
Taquas is located in Argentina, a country now open to business. Based on the PEA, extrapolating for $2,500 gold, the NPV (8%) of the asset is US $84 million, or C$1.15/share. This is based on the oxide ore body only. At this point Orvana has paused the project, looking at a larger project that includes both the oxide and the sulphide ore bodies.
The Don Marino mine in Bolivia (currently a difficult place to operate) has an oxide stockpile. The company is showing progress financing a re-start of the operation. Using the 2022 43-101, adjusting for $2,500 gold and a C$ of 0.725US, the NPV (12% discount) of the stockpile is C$37 million or, $0.27 a share. This does not include the tailings asset, which would require minimal Capex, once the plant was running again, treating the oxide stockpile.
Combined these assets should be worth $2.64 per share.