Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas weekly

[Carjack]

Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, September 11, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 8 cents from $2.06 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.14/MMBtu yesterday. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the October 2024 NYMEX contract increased 12.5 cents from $2.145/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.270/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging October 2024 through September 2025 futures contracts increased 2.5 cents to $2.959/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot price changes were mixed this report week (Wednesday, September 4 to Wednesday, September 11). Price changes ranged from an increase of 12 cents at FGT Citygate to a decrease of $1.07 at both the Waha Hub and Northwest Sumas.
  • Prices in the Northeast increased this report week despite lower consumption, following the Henry Hub price. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price rose 10 cents from $1.88/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.98/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price increased 9 cents from $1.59/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.68/MMBtu yesterday. Total consumption of natural gas decreased this week in the Northeast, driven by a 12% (1.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) decrease in consumption in the electric power sector, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, which was partially offset by a 15% (0.3 Bcf/d) increase in consumption in the residential and commercial sector. Temperatures in the Boston Area averaged 67°F this week, resulting in 1 heating degree day (6 fewer than normal) and 13 cooling degree days (17 fewer than normal). 
  • Prices in the South were mixed this report week. The Houston Ship Channel price fell 8 cents from $1.98/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.90/MMBtu yesterday. The FGT Citygate price rose 12 cents from $2.63/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.75/MMBtu yesterday. Energy Transfer, operator of the FGT pipeline that delivers natural gas to Florida, posted multiple capacity constraint notices on segments of the system in Louisiana. Hurricane Francine made landfall yesterday evening in Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane. In preparation for the storm, personnel evacuated from production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in an average 0.8 Bcf/d of natural gas production being shut in since Tuesday, based on data from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Feedgas to Cameron LNG in Louisiana began to decline ahead of the storm. 
  • Prices in the West decreased this report week. At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell $1.07 from $1.70/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.63/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 40 cents from $2.64/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.24/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 37 cents from $2.11/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.74/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, reached an intraweek high of 97°F (18°F higher than normal) on Friday but declined to 74°F yesterday (4°F lower than normal). 
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 15 cents to a weekly average of $13.78/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 52 cents to a weekly average of $11.76/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending September 13, 2023), the prices were $13.36/MMBtu in East Asia and $10.99/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 37 cents/MMBtu, averaging $6.20/MMBtu for the week ending September 11. Ethane prices rose 11% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 9%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 18%. The ethylene spot price rose 18% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 20%. Propane prices decreased 11%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 7% week over week, narrowing the propane discount to crude oil by 1%. Normal butane prices fell 9%, and isobutane and natural gasoline prices each fell 5%.

Top

 

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.8% (0.9 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.6% (0.6 Bcf/d) to average 101.5 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 3.5% (0.2 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 3.0% (2.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 7.7% (3.2 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas consumption in the industrial sector increased by 1.2% (0.3 Bcf/d) week over week, and consumption in the residential and commercial sector increased by 9.6% (0.8 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 2.2% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.4 Bcf/d, or 0.1 Bcf/d higher than last week.

Top

 

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased by 0.1 Bcf/d from last week to 13.4 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 0.2% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 8.0 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 3.8% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 4.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-three LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass, five from Corpus Christi, four from Freeport, three from Cameron, two from Calcasieu Pass, and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 87 Bcf departed the United States between September 5 and September 11, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Top

 

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, September 3, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 94 rigs as the Permian dropped 1 rig. The number of oil-directed rigs was unchanged from a week ago at 483 rigs. The Permian added two rigs. The DJ-Niobrara dropped one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 5 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 582 rigs, 50 fewer rigs than a year ago.

Top

 

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 40 Bcf for the week ending September 6, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 67 Bcf and last year's net injections of 50 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,387 Bcf, which is 296 Bcf (10%) more than the five-year average and 198 Bcf (6%) more than last year at this time. 
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 29 Bcf to 68 Bcf, with a median estimate of 46 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 23% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 11.3 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,008 Bcf on October 31, which is 296 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.