RE:Still holding a small position in FCU.T PS: All comments welcome on the future of U and FCU
Okey dokie. Here's my general perspective. Not directed at OP, just to whoever wants to waste their time reading what some random person thinks.
Fundamentals of a future Uranium supply and demand gap certainly seem to be valid and legit.
Athabasca is undoubtedly one of the richest areas in the world for uranium.
There are 3 companies IN CANADA which have started the uranium mine licensing process: NexGen, Denison, and Fission. They all started that process years ago. Off the top of my head (I genuinely forget), I think all of them started their necessary first offical steps around 2017-2018.
NexGen is the furthest along (see what happend to their stock price). Denison and Fission are neck and neck. Denison has a better property (imo). Fission only requires Provincial approval though. Fission doesn't have to deal with both the federal and provincial governments for each step, only the provincial. Federal approval will be inferred by provincial approval in their case. If they pass their EIS, they're good. Whereas Denison can be delayed simply by redundancy, causing delays, because of redundancy (ha).
Every other company who is drilling and has uranium mine potential, anywhere in Canada, is a minimum of 10 years away from production**. NexGen, Denison, and Fission "should" be 2-3 years away from production.
**Canada has recently.. well, this quote is easier: "Canada plans to boost its energy security by slashing the time it takes to develop new critical mineral mines by nearly a decade with improved permitting processes, energy minister Jonathan Wilkinson told Reuters on Tuesday.Feb 13, 2024". So, there's a chance that what will take N, D, and F 10+ years, will take newbies far less time. But, it's government, so who knows. I'll believe it when I see it. As somebody concerned with the environment, I'm not against a lengthy, thorough process. As an investor, I'm anxious and impatient.
If you look on each of their websites, they have very detailed numbers for the amount of uranium in ground, and the cost to extract it. Also initial project costs to get up and running, which NexGen just "reassessed" at an extra $600 million. And it's still ridiculously lucrative. Especially if today's contract rates are sustained or rise because of supply/demand.
The potential for each of the 3 companies I mentioned are fantastic, in my personal opinion. NexGen already got the "licensing-approval-boost" to their share price. Fission and Denison shares will get that treatment once approved. Denison is my personal preferred simply because of management. I own all 3. Plus a lot of other uranium miners or exploration companies. Some far more than others.
Uranium price sustained or future upside = great. Fission property = great. Fission licensing process = great. Fission management = haha, no. Paladin = ????. Although against the Paladin deal, there are positives to it. It's "fine/whatever". Fission current share price = cheap. Fission future share price...
FCU (PDN) stock price will continue to bounce and dive inline with the sector. Until PLS gets approval. Then I think there is substantial, initial "licensing-approval-boost" potential. Especially if approval happens in the midst of a hot market like last January or May.
One of the main reasons I wanted FCU to remain independent until after approval is simply the likelihood of a $1 stock doubling (or whatever upside) in price, quickly, based on news about it's primary, significant asset is stronger than a doubling of a stock price (PDN), where there is good news about one if it's assets. The immediate upside, as a percentage, is far reduced when the parent has multiple assets, and news is about one.
You asked... there there are. My thoughts on the future of U and FCU. I think it's worth holding. At the very least until they get licensed approval. I have my own, internal timeline expectations for that, but I'll just say I'm prepared to hold for years if need be.
Everybody should do their own research and come to their own conclusions on any companies and sectors, and invest within their comfort as a result of that. Definitely not from ANY random post on any message board from some guy just spewing out his opinion.