AOT
In looking at the news releases over the last couple of years there sure has been a lot of money put into this operation. From the releases this is how much the various investors have in this company.
Sprott has aprox. $140 million US or aprox. $ $180 million Cdn. from the two gold streams.
Nebari Credit has aprox. $34 million US or apox. $45 million Cdn.
Ccori Apu has aprox. $50 million Cdn. in shares that are now aprox. $20 million.
From what i read on the news releases regarding these financings it says that Sprott and Nebari would have a combination of Senior and Second lien positions. That would lead me to believe that they are basically secured creditors and would come first if there was a bankruptcy of AOT. Not sure if that means that they just take over the asset if AOT goes broke.
Even if they could take over does Sprott and Nebari want to get into operating a gold mine? You never know as this one would likely make them a lot of money as they would basically own the whole mine, mill, infrastructure for aprox. $225 million Cdn. Then they would have to finance getting to the ore and getting the mill up to speed. Sprott and Nebari are more into financing than operating mines i believe.
Sprott has aprox. 12% of AOTs yearly gold production or aprox. 22 000 ounces of gold when AOT gets up to 180 000 ounces per year at a cost of 10% of the gold price. At current gold prices that would give them aprox. $48 million US in profits on there investment of $140 million US or aprox. 33% return without having to worry about running a mine.
On the other hand if they took over the mine and they had to put in another $60 million US to get things up to speed they would then be making aprox. $210 million US on there $200 million US investment for an aprox. 105% return.
When you look at it that way looks like AOT shareholders are done for better try and sell on Monday for whatever you can get.
Just kidding. I dont think it is as simple as them just taking over but i could be wrong. Usually in a bankruptcy the asset would be sold which costs a lot of money in recievers, courts lawyers etc. And then the Secured creditors come first and usually there is little or no money left for anyone else. Sprott could force a bankruptcy and sale but then they have to go through the whole process and would not be sure how much they would get in the end.
We also have to remember are friends at Ccori Apu have aprox. $50 million Cdn. in shares here and would likely not like to lose that investment. Sprott bought 3% of AOTs production for US $30 million earlier this year. Why not do another 6% for $60 million US? If Sprott isnt interested maybe Ccori Apu would do it. They are not in a good position as they are shareholders like the rest of us and need AOT to suceed and have the money to make that happen. If not a gold stream Ccori could make an offer and take over the whole operation. Give me $1 per share and you can have all mine tommorow. Even 50 cents a share is starting to look pretty good and would be a triple on some of these low priced shares that i bought at current prices.
There are a lot of moving parts to juggle with what will happen with AOT. One thing is sure is that at current gold prices with a little more investment this company with all its huge gold resources and a modern refurbished mill will produce aprox. $210 million US or aprox. $280 million Cdn. or more in profits per year likely for many decades to come.
The only thing up in the air is who those profits will go to. Hopefully its the long suffering AOT shareholders. I think it will be. There is more than enough here for Sprott, Nebari Ccori Apu and the rest of us poor, depressed, starviing huddled masses also known as AOT shareholders.
Good luck to all.