CIBCEQUITY RESEARCH
September 26, 2024 Flash Research
EQB INC
CIBC Conference Takeaways
Event: CIBC hosted Chadwick Westlake, Chief Financial Officer of EQB, at
its Annual Eastern Institutional Conference.
Conclusion: The company is expecting loan growth and PCLs to move back
toward historical levels. Funding options are expanding, supporting liquidity
diversification and NIM expansion. EQB may place less emphasis on
dividend growth and more emphasis on share buybacks going forward.
Key Takeaways
• Single-family residential (SFR) growth to improve: SFR growth in
F2024 is sitting lower than EQB’s expectation of 3%-5%. The company
has historically outperformed peers with annualized growth of 16% vs.
peers of 10%-11%. With declining interest rates, EQB is optimistic for a
better demand environment, with no intention of chasing lower return
growth.
• Largest originator of multi-family securitization in the country:
Demand will continue for multi-family so long as Canada has a housing
shortage. There remains a need for densification in urban areas and
EQB is well positioned to benefit. Coupling the outlook for strong growth
with the fact that nearly 77% of the book is insured by the Canadian
government, EQB expects multi-family to be a long-term source of
low-risk growth.
• Alleviating concerns around credit risk: EQB stands by its
underwriting process while acknowledging that there was some
weakness in 2022 commercial transport. During this time, truck
valuations were particularly high, and the company underwrote loans at
consistent LTVs, which resulted in elevated losses in a single vintage
year due to a subsequent freight recession. This represents only a small
portion of EQB’s book as its total PCL ratio remains below the big banks.
• Increasing funding diversity: EQB recently completed a deposit note
offering at a cost that is lower than its current GIC rate. The company
now has more than a dozen levers to pull for funding, up from five just a
few years ago. Growing EQB Bank deposits remains a focus, which
should not only be accretive to NIM but should also add opportunities to
grow ancillary/fee-based revenue.
• Share repurchases offer another avenue for capital deployment:
EQB is close to completing the dividend growth plan it announced
five years ago. Organic loan growth remains the No. 1 priority, but given
the amount of capital generated by the business, and assuming dividend
growth slows, there is room for share buybacks.