back of napkin 1). Colemanite is now selling at $650/tonnes (indication is this is going higher)
2). The OS is now ~230M (let's say a max of 300M ),
3). Reserve will easily be 7M tonnes ( any more Boron found in small mine or basin increases the reserve)
4). Profit Margin of 60%
5). Capex of ~$100M
6). I've assumed a 0% discount rate, no price increase over time, etc. for a rough NPV estimate of :
High End : 7M X 650 * 0.6 - 100M / 230M = $7.87 / share
Low End 7M X 650 * 0.6 - 100M / 300M = $6.03 / share
discount by a third leaving some on the table for institutions.......
High End : 7M X 650 * 0.6 - 100M / 230M = $7.87 / share * 2/3 = $ 5.24
Low End 7M X 650 * 0.6 - 100M / 300M = $6.03 / share * 2/3 = $4.02