Welchau Flow Rate Guesses There is a lot of great technical information in the Welchau News Release.
The D'arcy flow equation requires knowledge of pressures, viscosity, reservoir height and permeability.
For pressures, the mud weight is 1.9, SG so the reservoir pressure is likely at least a gradient of 1.6 SG or about 27,000 kPa. The downhole flowing pressure can be estimated by the API (44 degrees is about 0.8) and GOR of about 1000 s F per bbl which would lighten the column to about 0.6 SG. This equates to 10,000 kPa. Overall, the delta pressure is about 17,000 kPa.
The viscosity of 44API oil at reservoir conditions will be close to 1 cP or the same as water. I assumed the height of the reservoir would be about 6 m.
Putting all this together gets you about 350 bopd per mD of permeability. Fractured limestone reservoirs can have wildly changing perm. It is helpful that the over pressured reservoir would help keep fractures open.
A few papers I have read give a reasonable perm range for an active hydrocarbon system as a range between 1 and 10 mD and a log normal distribution.
My guess is 3 mD perm for a test rate of about 1000 bopd.
I hope I am in the ballpark because that would be a very good well.
We have a bit of time before we get results, so we should all guess - because it truly is a guess and announce a winner when the real results come out.