RE:Q3 not as Bad as it lookedVariable Range 2024 AFF Sensitivity(1)(2) - C$mm
WCS Differential (US$/bbl) +/- US$1.00/bbl +/- C$47mm
WTI (US$/bbl) +/- US$1.00/bbl +/- C$31mm
Bitumen Production (bbls/d) +/- 1,000 bbls/d +/- C$16mm
Condensate (US$/bbl) +/- US$1.00/bbl +/-C$14mm
Exchange Rate (C$/US$) +/- $0.01 +/- C$10mm
Non-Energy Opex (C$/bbl) +/- C$0.25/bbl +/- C$6mm
AECO Gas(3) (C$/GJ) +/- C$0.50/GJ +/- C$6mm
(1) Each sensitivity is independent of changes to other variables.
(2) Assumes mid point of 2024 production guidance, US$75.00/bbl WTI, US$16.25/bbl WTI:WCS Edmonton discount, US$1.50/bbl WCS:AWB Edmonton discount, US$7.75/bbl WTI:AWB Gulf Coast discount, C$1.35/US$ F/X rate, condensate purchased at 100% of WTI and one bbl of bitumen per 1.42 bbls of blend sales (1.42 blend ratio).
(3) Assumes 1.4 GJ/bbl of bitumen, 65% of 160 MW of power generation sold externally and a 25.0 GJ/MWh heat rate.
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- IF the AVERAGE WTI/WCS Price Differential IMPROVES by USD 3 per barrel in Q3/2024 than OPERATING MARGINS will INCREASE by C $ 141 million
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