Canaccord After lowering his oil price projections for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, Canaccord Genuity energy equity analyst Mike Mueller lowered his targets for a group of stocks in his coverage universe on Tuesday.
“Since mid-summer, oil prices have experienced downward pressure predominantly resulting from: (1) weakening Chinese demand; (2) increasing OPEC+ supply; and (3) non-OPEC supply,” he said. “We also note that the recent escalation in tensions in the Middle East has resulted in temporal price spikes, a scenario that could remain in the cards as we move through the balance of the year, in our view. Adding to geopolitical uncertainty is the upcoming US election. We have lowered our WTI assumptions from US$80.00/bbl to US$70.00/bbl in Q4/24 and similarly lowered our 2025E forecast from US$75.00/bbl to US$70.00/bbl while maintaining our long-term WTI forecast of US$70.00/bbl. For Edmonton Par, we have modestly narrowed our Q4/24 differential estimate from US$3.25/bbl to US$3.00/bbl while widening our 2025E differential to US$3.50/bbl from US$3.25/bbl.”
His changes include:
- Baytex Energy Corp. (“buy”) to $6 from $6.50. Average: $6.10.
- Birchcliff Energy Ltd. ( “hold”) to $6 from $6.50. Average: $6.65.
- Freehold Royalties Ltd. (“buy”) to $18 from $19. Average: $17.36.
- Surge Energy Inc. ( “buy”) to $10.50 from $11. Average: $11.69.
- Tourmaline Oil Corp. ( “buy”) $74. Average: $77.13.
- Vermilion Energy Inc. ( “buy”) to $19 from $20. Average: $18.35.
- Veren Inc. ( “buy”) to $14 from $15. Average: $13.46.
- Whitecap Resources Inc. (“buy”) to $14 from $14.50. Average: $13.56.