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Topaz Energy Corp T.TPZ

Alternate Symbol(s):  TPZEF

Topaz Energy Corp. is a royalty and infrastructure energy company. The Company is focused on generating free cash flow growth and paying reliable and sustainable dividends to its shareholders, through its strategic relationship with Canada's natural gas producer, Tourmaline Oil Corp. Its asset portfolio is made up of royalty interests across approximately six million gross acres in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). Its assets are strategically located throughout Canada's resource plays, including NEBC Montney, Alberta Clearwater, Deep Basin, Peace River (Charlie Lake), Central Alberta, Southeast Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Its segments include royalty production and infrastructure. Its facilities provide services to customers on a fee-for-service basis, including natural gas processing and water usage, storage and disposal. The Company also invests in environmentally responsible oil assets. It also has working interest in the Musreau Facility.


TSX:TPZ - Post by User

Post by Westcoastenergyon Oct 23, 2024 10:09am
131 Views
Post# 36278352

Canaccord reiterates TPZ as a top pick in energy Q update

Canaccord reiterates TPZ as a top pick in energy Q updateWhitecap Resources (WCP-TSX: C$10.44 | BUY, C$14.00 target) We are reiterating our top pick in the Canadian E&P sector with Whitecap Resources. YTD, the stock has increased ~18%, compared to the TSX Energy Index at ~15%. Following its C$520M monetization of certain infrastructure assets in July, WCP announced a new public investment grade rating that we believe will open the door to potentially lower cost debt via the public bond market. This is supplemental to a new C$2B unsecured, covenant-based credit facility (replacing its existing facilities). We forecast the company exiting Q3/24 with net debt of $979M (0.6x D/CF, TTM), implying ample liquidity to target strategic tuck-in acquisitions to complement its existing asset base. On the M&A front, we note that with CNRL's (CNQ-TSX | Not Rated) recent (October 7) acquisition of Chevron's Alberta assets, this also removes the notion of WCP being a potential acquirer of the Duvernay assets. Operationally, the company continues to deliver, with its operational update last month noting it anticipates production being towards the high end of guidance (167,000-172,000 boe/d) with strong results (particularly at Musreau) contributing to this. Recall that WCP has outlined ~5% (CAGR) growth through its five-year plan, driven by its Montney/Duvernay development (in which it expects to consume less than 10% of those assets' inventory). This production growth is also accompanied by its C$0.73/share dividend (yielding ~7.0%) and further augmented by share buybacks. Last quarter, WCP repurchased ~11.5M shares for ~C $116M based on public filings, bringing its YTD total to ~11.7M shares (~C$118M). Valuation: Our target price is a blended NAV and EV/DACF-based approach and maps to a 2025E EV/DACF of 5.6x and is 0.7x our C-NAV. WCP currently trades at 4.3x 2025E EV/DACF, compared to its peer group average of 4.0x. WCP's dividend and our 12 month target price currently imply a total return of 41%. Latest Canaccord Genuity research on WCP Topaz Energy (TPZ-TSX: C$27.07 | BUY, C$31.00 target) We are reiterating our top pick among royalty names with Topaz Energy. The stock has performed well in 2024, up ~40% YTD and, in our view, the recent ~C$278M royalty acquisition further strengthens its asset base (boosting its royalty acreage by ~50%). While TPZ has been successful in diversifying its asset base since IPO (in commodity exposure and counterparties), we view this acquisition as a positive as it eliminates some concerns of where Tourmaline (TOU-TSX: C$62.43 | BUY, C$74.00 target) may allocate E&D capital through the balance of the decade. Pro forma the acquisition, TPZ will again have royalties on nearly all of TOU's lands. This was historically the case, but following an acquisitive year with TOU acquiring Bonavista, and more recently Crew, the proportion of TOU's lands that TPZ had royalties on has decreased and is no longer a concern, in our view. Having locked up additional royalties with a strong counterparty in TOU, we believe TPZ remains well positioned to benefit from growth as Canadian LNG exports ramp up. Valuation: Our target is DCF-based and reflects a 2025E EV/DACF multiple of 14.6x. TPZ currently trades at 12.9x 2025E EV/DACF, in line with the royalty group average of 12.8x. TPZ's dividend and our 12-month target price currently imply a total return of 19%.
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