RE:Where my heads at Going to piggyback off of this to give my opinion + clarify some numbers and info since I’ve finally gotten around to reading the Technical Report.
Osisko's Windfall Project GEOs were double counted. Their 4.1M measured & indicated (M&I) resources already includes the 3.2M probable reserves. For those who don't understand the difference, M&I resources are high confidence estimates that have NOT yet been fully evaluated for economic feasibility. Probable reserves are the economically viable portions of the M&I resources.
So, the Windfall Project has more like 7.4M GEOs. Which means they got more than $400/oz. But they were SO much further along than LME. The more we discuss on this, the more I’m unsure why we don’t try to get large capital injections to just drill a significant amount in the 6kmx2.5km mineralized zones. Something similar to GBR or similar to Greenstone. I believe doing this could prove the Ishkoday does have 10M GEOs. The only reason I can think of why Cynthia has not done this is she believes she doesn’t need a significant capital injection (selling a portion of LME or further diluting shareholders) for more drilling to get a good price. Maybe they can showcase enough data now or in the near future to convince a buyer this is currently worth $1B-$2B.
My opinion on the 2.5M gold ounce estimate has shifted since it came out as well. For now, I don’t believe we can assume all of those ounces are measured and indicated. M&I resources only happen when enough drilling has been done in a small area.
Table 10-1 in the Technical Report depicts the drill holes while Figure 10-1 depicts the drill locations and zones of interest. You’ll notice we’ve done a lot of drilling in the A-Zones. I’m no expert, but to me, the only area that would have enough drilling done for M&I seems to be this zone. The gold grades in these zones have been lower (see Table 25-1), but I think they are still economically feasible grades. The report also includes figures from other zones that have barely been drilled, so I’d assume some of the ounces have to be inferred (not enough drilling done in the CRK zone to be M&I for example).
So, the good and bad part is that we have no idea if USCG believes the 2.5M oz is M&I, inferred, or a mix (based on above, IMO it’s a mix). USCG took a full year to come up with the estimate, so I imagine they took the additional drill data from 2023 and 2024 at least somewhat into account. But I could be wrong. Since they are publicly putting out this information, I imagine Cynthia is only allowing them to take the publicly available data to calculate their numbers. This could mean the data on inferred resources could be quite a lot more. This would be data only LME has from their models. I guess we have reason to believe it’s significant if Cynthia wants to sell, but I don’t believe you can reasonably tell or guess from the report.
Anyhow, it’s clear to me from the Technical Report that the Ishkoday has unbelievable potential for an open pit mine. There are multiple zones that could be economically feasible in the 6kmx2.5km mineralization corridor. This is potentially why a buyer could be interested right now, believing the Ishkoday has that potential and buying it before it gets too expensive. That's kind of what happened with GBR, albeit in a much different and more advanced way, but Kinross bought it before they discovered even more gold in the ground. I believe they are drilling the Sturgeon zone now to prove they have multiple pit locations that are economically feasible, with the main high-grade gold pit to be in the Sturgeon zone. What makes this extra enticing for a buyer is that the Twin Falls adds potential for another pit unto itself, although that is highly speculative, I’m just basing my opinion from the grab samples.
So, who knows. I'd love for it to be $10/share before the end of the year, but I wouldn't be surprised if we go the capital injection route. I don't particularly care what's been said in the past about them only going for a buyout because I just don't see how Cynthia sells this for the significant amount we all think it's worth without more drilling. Buyers typically want to pay the least amount possible, but like I said, the only reason I can think of why a buyer would pay $1B-$2B is the data backs it up enough to buy this now before it's actually measured. I know there is pressure from the F&F about the timeline too, so maybe I'm wrong and it will be sold for $2/share even though I believe we'd be leaving so much more on the table than if we just stayed patient. I get it, it's been a long time. But I think in a couple years, we could be there. Or hopefully I'm wrong on all of that and we're sipping margaritas on our private islands in 2025.