TSX:AX.PR.E - Post by User
Comment by
Torontojayon Oct 25, 2024 9:08pm
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Post# 36283006
RE:4.5% to 5% 10 year?
RE:4.5% to 5% 10 year?
garyreins wrote: I don't think so. That's just as bad tightening as the overnight rate given lots of financing is fixed. The traders are doing the back and forth whips which overshoot in both directions.
Economy and inflation was just fine under trump. It's not going to become mad max when he gets in. Plus it'll take years to enact some tariffs etc.
If Nominal gdp is =~ 5.6% then why couldn't the 10 year reach 5%+ ?
2% inflation and 3% real gdp or,
2.5% inflation and 2.5% real gdp gives us a 10 year priced at around 5%. That's not at all far fetched.
This is one of the reasons why I preferred t-bills because the long term is so uncertain given the large fiscal deficits.