JohnnyDoe wrote: Cobalt wrote: My homework states that there is an oversupply of 5 million barrels, increasing annually. Indeed, drilling can be time-consuming, but that's not how markets operate; they don't wait to see the outcomes—they move based on the perception of what is anticipated.
AvInvestor wrote: Drill takes yeearrrsss. The market is not oversupplied do your homework.
I don't think there is an over supply of 5 million barrels, nor do I think you could substantiate that. What you have is a constant narrative that demand is cratering, we're heading ot a recession or whatever the case may be. The US election in two weeks likely results in less volatility.
with regard to your 5 million number, that might be possible in an ideal world but we don't live in an ideal world. Half of OPEC can't meet their quota, the shale basins are heading to decline, inventories are low.
there's no way with demand at almost 104 that you cna substantiate kicking out 109.
The world consumed a record amount of oil in June, July, August but you see headlines like this
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Warns-of-Very-Weak-Global-Oil-Demand.html
that's a headline, this is math
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Standard-Chartered-Global-Oil-Demand-Hit-An-All-Time-High-In-August.html
- In a recent report, Standard Chartered concluded that demand hit an all-time high of 103.79 million barrels per day in August.
- Whereas demand growth is lower than in all other post-pandemic Augusts, it can hardly be considered weak.