Random Thoughts Once again, TVE reminds me of Ultra Petroleum. UP was $2 in 2000, and $200 (accounting for the split) in 2008 before making a really big mistake that led them into bankruptcy. Hang on folks, this has a long way to run.
Patterns last until they don't. The recent pattern is that no one wants to be caught without a long oil position at the Friday close, just in case of a war blows up over the weekend. When Monday morning comes around there is a significant amount of liquidation. Monday morning lows and Friday afternoon highs is now the norm. You can be sure, however, that if I actually tried trading derivatives contracts with this knowledge that the trend would immediately cease.
People confuse Peak Oil with running out of oil. Peak Oil means that oil is everywhere.... And cheap! BUT... It also means that there will be less available in the future, and thus more expensive in inflation-adjusted $. We saw peak oil from land deposits decades ago, We have now seen peak oil from offshore oil, and appear to currently be at Peak Oil from shale. It appears, to me, that if we are not currently at Peak Oil from all sources (and Peak Oil is only known in hindsight, never when it is actually happening), then we are darn close. TVE will be drilling existing land for decades. This is a non-expiring call option on oil that pays a dividend.
Re the dividend: The increase was smaller than it could have been. I suspect that they are setting up tiny increases in the dividend but plan on increasing that dividend annually for many years to come.
TVE is a long-term hold for me; I'm done buying. I hope it stays independent, but I suspect a takeover is likely over the next few years.