RE:RE:RE:LOL2 years of going straight up, setting lots of records, so it's easy to see something coming. We didn't even get the usual seasonal drop between August and October.
mouserman wrote: flamingogold wrote: At current levels and economic fundamentals, a 10% correction is not only possible, but healthy. It clears the deck to go higher. This is something I would welcome. 20% is less likely and needs quite a bit of fear for us to roll over that much. There are several potential catalysts... escalation of war, US post election uncertaintly or unrest, inflation rising again requiring central banks to reverse course on rate chops. All these seem unlikely today, but not not out of the realm of possibility
A crash however beyond 20%, especially +40%, would require something unexpected to break. This is impossible to time and as you have pointed out are only noticeable in the rear view mirror. To time an entry based on one could lead to many missed opporunities. Data shows that the risk of missing the biggest up days is worse than trying to miss the biggest down days. This is why staying invested is critical. Raising some cash or hiding in prefs is ok but going all out in anticipation of a crash requires a lot of luick.
Toppicks1 wrote: People who missed buying in low are always wanting or predicting big crash events. Elliot wave predictions are always really clear about 5 to 10 years after. When they can use their crayons to draw better thesis. With 85% of all S&P companies reporting record earnings it's hard to imagine a 10% correction. Will take some catistrofic event to get a 20% one in my opinion.
A few noted analysts are saying 2025 is going to be down most of the year, a death of a thousand cuts... No big drop off, just a steady downward trend. And history also agrees with the year after the election drops. I may go to some 2 x bear ETFS,and precious metals, much the same as I did when the pandemci frightened folks into selling everything. I waited for the banks to bottom and got back into the split funds.