RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:OPEC+ Extends Voluntary Production AdjustmentsHeavyBanana wrote: ManitobaCanuck wrote: I might be a lil wary of that statment .
q1 is usually capex heavy so not much or nil buybacks , q2 is when buybacks just start and q3/q4 is when they take off buybacks. So by July 2025 , I dont think they will purchase the full 70mil this time around if Oil sticks between 70-80 ,60 mil shares buyback max . 90-100$ oil is another story though , lol They generate 1-1.2 bil FCF at 90-100$ oil .
1 year of 90-100 Oil , 600 mil to debt and 600mil to buybacks . Debt reaches 1.5 bil target and they buyback 120mil shares .
1 year of 90-100 Oil is needed for this to shine , Remember between 2009-2013 avg oil price was b/w 90-100 for 4 years
Q2 had E&D of about $340 million and they bought back and cancelled about 17 million shares in aggregated.
We are witnessing what H2 is delivering in real time.
Maybe overly optimistic to think the 70 million share NCIB will be executed in full but we need to see how they guide next year E&D to really get a feel for the potential for the NCIB to be executed in full and we get that guidance in December.
All good ............ things are setup beautifully for this investment, in it to win it.
Agree , just need to sit tight and watch the FCF flow .
Everyday above $70 oil is good . Debt will be down by 300mil in 2024YE, so overall we will reduce interest payments by 25mil which adds 3 cents per year to FCF .
Slow n steady we will grind upwards ,