RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Teuto or Verdemed?Lemoyne wrote:
Well that's the thing, although it hasn't been made public yet, the path forward is likely clear for generic epidiolex. LABS partner is most likely part of the gang that negotiated a deal. Therefore they know when and where their generic will be deployed and how much potential sales it represents. LABS clearly has completed its path to manufacture generic epidiolex for USA.
Q3 and Q4 will inform how current contracts in germany, australia and brazil are evolving. And now, if they obtained generic epidiolex licences for brazil... or germany, or australia.... That's what LABS (Keith most of all) has worked towards, building a business that allows for quick expansion in mulitple intl markets from a pharma standpoint.
You think Brazil inspection of LABS facility was for low volume CBD sales...? If anvisa went through the trouble of inspecting LABS facility, it's because, imo, LABS might be a big player going forward in brazil market.
If all goes well, LABS should be worth 400M if generic and other contracts go forward. And then, the question is, would LABS pharma partners want to acquire LABS before all goes public? It all depends on how both mgmts see advantages and risks of M&A before generic contract goes public vs post.
Generic could be available end of 2025 on market... so that sets a timeline for autumn 2025 if LABS gets acquired for generic epidiolex before contract/ partner goes public.
All very reasonable assumptions, but in the absence of any confirmed guidance, it all means nothing.
Pidduck needs to communicate and let the shareholder base how close these guesses are to reality.
Epidiolex may not be any time soon if the mystery Medipharm partner is NOT on the settlement list. Has Apotex settled yet? There are some straglers and who knows where we fit into that. And really, at this point, why on Earth do we not know about this mystery partner or the one(s) in Brazil.
The shroud of secrecy is the single most annoying aspect of this business. They went from releasing with Pat and Keith went to the can to a cone of silence worthy of the CIA.
Q3 may not confirm a thing apart from it's (reasonably) steady as she goes. It feels like a coiled spring, but we have all heard that story before and felt the sting of disappointment from it.
In the end, I think longs deserve much better forward looking guidance than what they've been getting. Personally, I would have thought the SP would be at 0.20 by about now and am not exactly happy that SP appreciation hasn't been forthcoming. Sure, the future seems bright/positive, but it has for years and yet nothing. I really do hope that Pidduck changes the channel this Q and starts really telling the story for the next Qs and FYs.