RE:Regular analyses in the German-speaking Forum on Gabriel The question is what happens next. Very briefly:
1.
The ad hoc ICSID committee must decide on the Gabriel application regarding the "suspension of the enforcement award". The success rate here is around 50%. The application will only be approved if the application regarding the "cancellation of the award" is not (completely) without a chance.
2.
The ad hoc ICSID committee must decide on the application regarding the "cancellation of the award". Chances based on statistics (<5%) are of no help. There has been one case so far where an arbitrator's involvement with legal representation (expert) was criticized. The award was annulled. This is the case "Eiser" against "Spain". Spain had filed a lawsuit. White&Case referred to this case (several times) in the application for annulment.
3.
If the award is annulled (as requested by Gabriel), then there will be a new ICSID arbitration procedure. The focus will then be on the assessment (of the new arbitration court) of the UNESCO issue (whether mining operations are possible or not) and the fact that the (legally required) environmental approval procedure was not properly decided and concluded - but was aborted for political reasons. This is primarily the case for the opposing opinion of the third arbitrator from Argentina - who (decidedly) does NOT support the majority decision. He provided the justification for another procedure, so to speak.
Conclusion
With a new procedure, this could easily take another plus or minus 5 to 6 years. But the financial risks for Romania would be dramatic. Keywords: increased gold price and accruing interest. If the award were to be revoked (I have already written about this), I assume a negotiated solution: investment costs of USD 760 million will be reimbursed to Gabriel by Romania without interest. In return, Romania will receive the so-called "data room". This is equivalent to a so-called "source code" for the construction of a mine. It is possible that 2 to 3 generations later, the gold could still be mined (by Romania): new, more environmentally friendly extraction processes (without cyanide, but still profitable) and a gold price of 5,000 USD/oz.