mercedesman wrote:
Strong post BJ
If we assume CG is after global rights ( which is my assumption) and seeks to hold rights for a period beyond which Spectral holds them for NA ( which is again my assumption), then I agree with you... Toray holds a lot of the cards, and Spectral, as holder of the rights to the world's largest market) shouldn't be pushed around in any negotiations on buyout price.
Birch Hill too, as a not too shabby PE Firm, and as the second largest shareholder, will provide another anchor in the negotiations.
And as you point out, the EAA is a key and inseparable factor to this new " precision medicine" approach which we presume will be approved by the FDA. Ferrari's require keys too.
Going forward, the strong future association with Kellum as a KOL on Sepsis, who stands to do very well as a Spectral SH, is also something that needs to be preserved from CG's perspective.
Finally, I have always been of the opinion that take-overs of drug-developers ( and devices requiring protracted RCT's and FDA approval) , must , more or less, follow a more formulized buyout pattern. That is, while there may be some quibbling about market size and eventual unit price, these things fall into historical patterns depending on the ultimate effectiveness and degree of exclusivity. And the presumed uptake of a new SoC in medicine is more a function of the skill set and determination of the acquirer vs. the acquiree.
In order to put together a formidable global business plan centered around PMX, CG needs an FDA approval and the cooperation of not just Spectral, but Toray, Birch Hill and Kellum as well. Fingers crossed that negotiations are well underway and going well.
MM