RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:WTI avg. for October $71.99JohnnyDoe wrote: HeavyBanana wrote: JohnnyDoe wrote: dllscwbysfn wrote: Well banana you might want to ask Baytex where their debt is today. Since the last earnings report the Cdn loonie has dropped by about .03 cents. Many people say this is good but I have memories of BTE telling us they didn't pay any debt due to the change in currency, just saying!
How much of the debt is in US versus Canadian dollars?
Bte needs to drive that debt lower. Meaningfully lower.
Look at the Fcf bar charts I posted. If you're leading the pack on fcf yield yet trailing the pack on stock appreciation, the market clearly doesn't like something. In BTE's case, that something is debt and the 50% shareholder returns compared to many companies having hit their targets and paying out 75-100% shareholder returns
JohnnyDoe, how much influence do you think outstanding shares have on stock performance relative to peers, amongst other factors such as debt?
Also, do you think it is better to have a position in a stock prior to a better value alignment being recognized or after?
The former would indicate the chart you refer to is a helpful tool in making an investment decision relative to current stock price, no?
Ordinarily yes I'd say that companies to the right on those fcf bar charts are where you'd want to be invested.
But bte has been one of the highest yielding companies for some time and it's not doing Jack for me and you as retail investors.
I own two companies that are at the bottom of the patch in terms of capital appreciation. In my case it's been depreciation. And both have reasons for investors to salivate over the opportunity.
Unfortunately I don't see any catalysts on the horizon for either company to change the narrative. Quite simply I don't think the market likes either the bte mgmt group or the veren mgmt group
I see Baytex settling back over $5.00 fairly quickly after this tax loss positioning has fully settled and the same applies to Veren at its relative price point.
I don't believe Baytex management is despised in institutional circles but certainly some vocal retail investors display disdain for them on chat forums.
Baytex management made some adjustments in Q3 that had it come out a much stronger quarter than Brian Ector had projected to me as an example of how it might look.
If Q4 comes in with upside surprise to what they have guided then that will make 2 quarters of very positive delivery.
Looking forward to their budgeting plan and guidance for 2025 which will be disseminated to the public in early December.