Scotia Capital Scotia Capital analyst Tanya Jakusconek raised her gold and silver price projections on Thursday to reflect the firm’s forecast for interest rates, inflation, U.S. dollar expectations and to “incorporate the strong buying of gold from the official sector.”
“Looking at 2024-2025, we believe the gold price will continue to be driven by the macro call, particularly as it pertains to interest rate cuts affecting both nominal and real rates (including inflation) and the U.S. dollar (USD). This should further be supported by global above-average debt levels, geopolitical risk, and strong central bank buying,” she said in her quarterly gold report.
For 2024, her estimates for both metals rose by 9 per cent with gold up US$100 per ounce to US$2,400 and silver rising US$1.50 to US$28.50. She also raised her assumptions for 2025 through 2027.
With those changes, she adjusted her target prices for most of the stocks in her coverage universe.
For senior gold stocks, Ms. Jakusconek made these changes:
- Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (“sector outperform”) to US$103 from US$94. The average is US$95.67.
- Kinross Gold Corp. ( “sector outperform”) to US$13 from US$11. Average: US$12.
- Newmont Corp. (“sector perform”) to US$52 from US$55. Average: US$59.38.
“We still see, on average, 20-per-cent upside for the group to target prices. Our top picks are AEM, KGC, GOLD in the operators and WPM and TFPM in the streamers, with the operators preferred to the streamers,” she said.