RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Biotech industry readies for " Pharma M&A Spree" According to a new report from Leerink Partners outlining large pharma companies’ loss of exclusivity (LOE) exposure between both 2025 and 2030, and 2030 through 2040, Leerink accounted for 17 large-cap biopharmas who will be significantly affected, and only included drugs with expected revenue of $1 billion or more in the base years of 2025 or 2030. The analyst team omitted antibody-drug conjugates, CAR-T therapies, vaccines and gene therapies from their projections given the lack of regulatory pathways for generics or biosimilars to those types of medicines.
Naturally, the LOEs for certain drugs in Leerink’s list could be extended through patent expansions or litigation, the analysts caveated. Plus, companies will also need to pursue their own R&D in addition to external innovation, Leerink said.
Still, the overall message of the report is clear: “Companies with sizable LOE exposure in 2025-2030 are under pressure to acquire late-stage assets that can be launched in coming years,” while “those which do not face significant LOEs until 2030+ may be more aggressive acquirers of earlier-stage assets.”
Consequently, late stage development companies like ONCY, with its late-stage clinical development program with pelareoep, are in greater demand for near-term M&A and at premium acquisition valuations, than is currently seen taking place with earlier-stage assets.
In the coming years, Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck, Amgen, Novartis and AstraZeneca are staring down the greatest level of exposure to generic and biosimilar competition while Vertex, Gilead Sciences, Sanofi, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are the least exposed over the 2025-2030 timeframe, Leerink said.
From 2030 onward, however, Lilly, Gilead and Novo are much more likely to take a hit from LOEs, alongside companies like Regeneron and Biogen, the analysts pointed out. Vertex, GSK, Pfizer, Takeda and Amgen are likely to fare the best in terms of LOE exposure from 2030 through 2040, the Leerink team added.