RE:2.7 m ounces at 11 grams gets us NPV5 of $10.4 Billion cadnozzpack wrote: ...that is, after tax at $POG of $2000 US
Lets take the 2022 FS of our impoverished orogenic sibling Valentime Lake ( which I did own under MOA ) which has also drill tested that gold lodes exist down to at least 1000 m .
The FS was based on 2.7 million ounces of Reserves averaging 1.6 grams per ton contained within 3 open pits down to 300 meters of depth and generated by 381,000 meters of drilling
The essentials at $2000 US POG...
LOM..................................14.3 Years
Average Production........195,000 ounces
AISC.................................$1046 US per ounce
LOM Free Cash flows ........$1.78 Billion
After tax NPV5................................$1.05 Billion
The derivative metrics
NPV5 generated per meter of drilling = $1.05 B / 381,000 m =$2750 .
QWN meters drilled above 300 meters = approx 550,000 m
Estimated QWN NPV5 at $2000 US POG and Grade of 1.6 grams per ton is $2750 X 550,000 = $1.5 Billion CAD.
Modelled average grade of QWN is 11 grams pdr ton .
Adjusting for grade differential ( 11/ 1.6 = 6.9 ) we estimate QMN NPV5 after tax above 300 meters at $2000 US POG to be $1.5 Billion CAD X 6.9 = $10.4 Billion CAD .
So adjusting for the larger area drilled at QWN and much higher QWN grade, at $2000 US POG , we arrive at a NPV5 of over $10 billion CAD.
At $2600 US POG , simple computations arrive at a NPV5 of just over $18 Billion CAD.
Divide by 2 to be very conservative adn we arrive at QWN shallows drill defined todate of about $9 billion which is about $40 per share
Still want to be ultra consevative ?
Divide by 2 again and we have a short term fair NAV5 value of $20 per share
AIMHO
GLTA
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/12/07/2569765/0/en/Marathon-Gold-Announces-Positive-Updated-Feasibility-Study-for-the-Valentine-Gold-Project.html
you are assuming they go into production with your analysis and that they double the share count x2 twice with your conservative estimates
I take Simple approach ounce per share in the ground
10,000,000 ounces / 210,000,000 shares = .476 ounces per share if we have 20 mill double it
so .476 x $200 = 9.53 US$ per share to get C$ 1./.705 = 1.418 = 13.51 C$ per share
depending in what category the ounces get put in could be a bit lower or a lot higher and depending on number of ounces could be higher or lower
I have heard estimates from 5 million to 100 million
Happy new year to all