RE:From Brian Ector today ........HeavyBanana wrote: "Hi xxxxxxxxx, for this discussion, let’s start with our FCF profile for 2025 - we expect to generate ~ $400 million of FCF at US$70 WTI and ~ $600 million at US$75 WTI. In both cases, there will be minimal FCF generated during the first quarter given our production and capex profile.
This is similar to what we experienced in 2024 when we generated no FCF in Q1/2024 but for the full-year 2024, should be ~ $600 million.
Last year we paused our buyback program until the second quarter. This year, we intend to maintain a modest buyback program during the first quarter and then re-evaluate or adjust as we make our way through the year. Our current pace of buy backs for January is ~ $150K per day.
Regards,
Brian"
I highlighted the interesting points. Brian seems to have given a tell for FY24 fcf and also an understanding of buybacks currently being undertaken on a daily basis even if it is small in scope.
They've got 1.85 B in bank debt at roughly 8% interest chewing up 160 M a year
They're spending about 1.2B a year to generate the fcf
Forget what Brian says, do you think 400M fcf at 70 is a good situation for Baytex given it's debt and reserve life?
For every forecast that says 80+, there's one saying it's 60 something. In fact I just read one this morning saying 57 half way thru the Trump term.
What do you think happens to the Baytex share price at 60 buck oil?
If you think that the fcf profile is currently in a good place, why do you think the stock price basically flat over 3 years?