A rudderless countryA so-called leader who says he will resign, to be replaced by one selected by a party that has less than 20% support with the electorate. A government that is avoiding all the substantive issues save that they can spin them in ways that (they hope) will change the verdict of dismissal they are suffering. While at the same time they are doubling down of the destructive economic (and other) agendas that got them (and us) is an unholy mess.
The Tyrant's plan (to "cut off" exports) to deal with the US imposing US tariffs on US buyers of Canadian energy exports illustrates how venal he is. Tariffs are a US issue and while, if the tariff was applied, the consequences would be exponentially dynamic, the bottom line is that the US refinery system has to have Western Canadian oil and gas and the logistics of substituting it are difficult, time consuming and perhaps impossible. Therefore, I doubt that it will occur, or if it does it will be symbolic and short term. Might add that Poilievre is correct and, given the discount that turns WTI into WCS, the tariff would only make the net US price about equal to the WTI price. The WCS discount is a function of egress constraints and dumb Ottawa policies that are a whole different discussion.
The usual response to tariffs is to impose countervailing tariffs. I.E. Canada could put a similar tariff on the imports of US energy into Canada. That would show them; but of course that would mean that, rather than a plan to devastate the Alberta and Saskatchewan economies, Joly would have to explain why consumers in BC, Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes would pay the price to punish the Americans.
And what they be paying for? For a decade of policy that has made sure that Western Canadian energy is mostly land-locked in the West and does not threaten vested (Liberal) interests in the East, or upset a host of tiny green special interest groups and black-mailing first nations determined to destroy our country. If the infrastructure that Trudeau and his green elves sabotaged had been built, Canadians in the East and far West would be enjoying far more dependable Canadian supply. There would be made-in-Canada options for threats like the one that has surfaced from Washington. I could go on about the $100s of billions in productive investments in Canada; the tens of thousands of well-paying jobs, and the tens of billions of foregone income (and tax revenue to the feds and provinces) that have been foregone, but that too is another discussion. Instead we suffer power failures and a growing probability that, some day soon, there actually will be Canadians left freezing in the dark because the spare capacity and redundancy that should have been built, was not.
I don't know what will happen in the short term, but we need stability in government. Right now we have none. Hence the astronomical level of uncertainty. There must be an election. One that puts a party and a leader in place who have an electoral mandate and credibility. And, one would hope, more sanity and competence than the current one.
Trudeau and crowd have clearly lost the support of voters; he and his government have lost the confidence of Parliament; and apparently he does not even command the support of his caucus or party. He announces he will resign, then continues on as if he has not. His actual resignation is conditioned on someone with even less credibility and no mandate being selected by a party that similarly has neither. This will be our next Prime Minister, months from now.
In this vacuum of leadership, combined with the historical evidence that The Tyrant will do even more damage before he really leaves, no one is investing in Canada. At least we have not seen a massive sell-off yet, but who knows….
So, shares of companies like Bonterra trade as fractions of their NAV and even smaller fractions of what a healthy open market in Western Canadian energy might result in. Because of the uncertainty about what is going to happen.
Having gotten all that off my chest, I believe the current prices in an empty market are the bargain of a life time. One I am taking advantage of. The Ottawa crowd will muddle through; the Trudeau knot will be cut sooner rather than later; the decade of darkness is coming to an end. And the promise for the future is much brighter than most apparently see it.