RE:RE:Might be time to add a little.i think it would help you if you took responsibility for what happened. You invested in a commodity/cyclical at the absolute peak of the cycle. If you're 70% down you must have bought around $3.15 which is way higher than their own equity financing at $2.53 in 2023 when commodity prices were relatively normal and at that point in in 2022, it was the highest share/gas price in the last 5-10 years except for about 2 quarters before that. It was the very top of the cycle that you bought into. You may not have realized there was a cycle that's fine but it's important to identify what happened.
In addition to the high share price bought in at, you also bought into a business sector and natural gas specificially that was sure to be going down in prices from the prior all-time high months and about to reach historic lows in 2024. I made the same mistake by buying 1 year too early into natural gas I didn't expect 2024 to be so bad, but it was horrible timing or a mistake if you want to consider it that way. That does not mean you have to offload and reload at the tops and bottoms of cycles assuming that's even possible, but there is in fact a cyclical sector underlying the share and you bought at the wrong time of that economic cycle for any immediate gains.
There was a short-term expectation. For you to have made any money at $3.15 you really should have had a 5-10 year outlook because their earnings were declining at that point and likely to decline further it was impossible to match Q2/2022 levels. Alternatively, you should have been buying more at lower levels while you could as it went against you if you didn't buy more as it declined that was also a mistake. 2.5 years is not that short but it's still below my 3-year rule against selling any position I initiate. This is a rule that is endorsed by Buffett, Fisher, Pabrai, and so many others. You have not yet reached 3 years so I would wait another 6 months before evaluating and considering the position.
If you wanted minimal exposure to wti specifically, you could have also taken a lot of better options. So it's important to understand why you took positions, what happened, etc. to fully evaluate your decisions and positions. If you added more i don't know how much your original book value was but I increased mine by at least 50% for over a year by being able to add more. I am not that disappointed from having exited tech positions that went up 50% in 2024 because I added the same amount and if it goes up from here I end up making a lot more than if I stayed in tech and didn't add and despite a difficult year