RE:Free Cash Flows Post by
houbahop on Mar 07, 2024 3:45am Free Cash Flows
It will be interesting to see Peyto's forecasted FCF tonight.
Tourmaline published theirs yesterday. $1.19B expected for 2024 vs $1.69B done for 2023.
Basically, using diluted shares of 355m TOU ($63) is trading at
18.8x expected 2024 FCF.
If my spreadsheet is correct, I have assuming for 2024:
- Capex of $440m
- Average production of 128k boe/d
- Current commodities spot and strip price.
- Share count of 196m.
Using my expected $350m FCF for 2024, PEY trading at $14.70 is at
8.2x expected 2024 FCF.
Anyone playing with numbers see this?
TOU - PEY spread has narrowed in the last 3 months. I expect it to narrow further.
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Almost a year has gone by since writting that post comparing TOU - PEY.
The ratio went from 4.4 to 3.75 in december and is now around 4. Looking at the following 5-year chart, it seems TOU should be favored over PEY at these levels.
TOU-PEY 5-year spread ratio It looks like Peyto's Free Cash Flows will be closer to $260m for 2024.
My assumption of 128k boe/d average production was of by 3k wich could explain $10m of the $90m discrepancy. Another $20m explained by capex beeing a bit above expected. The rest explained by softer commdity prices in the second part of the year.