RE:RE:Reflections on Obsidian Energy’s News Release dated January Thank you for your kind words.
I do not have a target price for OBE by the end of 2025.
At the start of each of 2023 and 2024 I thought OBE would get to C$20 by the end of that year. In each case I was wrong, and it didn't happen. I rationalized those outcomes at those times, but deciding it just hadn't happenned yet.
Its realtively straight forward to tell what will happen to a share price. But it is extremely difficult to predict when.
In OBE's case, I think the stars are starting to line up.
By stars I mean
1. Production Increase
2. Proven and Possible Reserve Increase
3. Production Price Incraese (the combination of WTI, CAD/USD, WCS Discount, Natural Gas Prices)
4. Multiple Realignment (Multiple movement from low to average, or better)
Any one of these could double (or better) the current share price.
What happens when they happen concurrently?
I can't predict (with confidence) the numerical outcome, nor the date.
What I can say, is there is a high probability of this being an asymmetric situation. By that I mean the probabily of the share price moving in one direction a given amount, is higher than moving in the other.
When stock hunting, you look for asymmetric targets. If you see one, you lasoo it and hold on until it stops running. Only then, do you find out exactly what you caught.
As always, these are my thoughts. That doesn't make them correct. They may turn out to be wrong.