RE:Tobinator: Thoughts on Yesterday’s News ReleaseHere are my thoughts:
Finishing with 211k ounces produced resulting in 57,000 ounces for the quarter is solid, particularly with this price environment. Earnings, Revenue and Cash Flow should come out as records for the company. K92 mining reported 53k ounces for Q4 and has a similar production growth profile through 2026. Their market cap is 2.5 times higher than Aris. I see strong value here on a relative basis.
The buzz kill in the news release is the 2025 estimated total production of 230,000 - 275,000 ounces. Previously in October, the said Segovia should come in at 250,000 ounces meaning with Marmato, the total would be 275,000 ounces. Essentially they are saying on the low side, 19,000 ounces additional production will come from the expansion this year. Another 19,000 ounces or a 10% increase over 2024 is still a postive. The problem is the Bear Market in mining equities is demanding much more aggressive production profiles in order for stock share prices to surge. An example of this is Equinox mining, my favorite mid-tier producer. They have are large mine in Canada coming up to full production. There stock is up over 20% YTD when most Gold producers are meandering around 5%.
We don't know why guidance is sofer than expected but by the end of this year, Segovia will be at 3000 tons per day and Marmato near first gold pour. The lemmings that sold down Aris stock this morning need a colonscopy to identify where in their intestinal track their head is.