RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Irrational marketsckwong..thank you for your kind words...
It's interesting that you mention the issue about landlines. I don't know the stats on how many people still have landlines. I do know that none of my four children have landlines (and to best of knowledge none of their friends do either) and very few of my close friends have landlines.
Perhaps, someone here might have the data or interest in researching this topic but anecdotally, I don't see this as being much an issue to the BCE or the other major Canadian telecoms.
To me, I see a major sea change in Canadian telecoms has happened. In the past, the CRTC would grant space to telecom startups who would capture market share and then later either get bought out by one of the majors or go bankrupt. The end result was really not much of a change for the majors. The difference now is purchase of Freedom Mobile by Quebcor. Now instead of a startup telecom company we have one that is part of a Canadian based mega cap with deep pockets and run by some very smart people. This will (and has already) have a big impact on future margins for the majors. It is well known that Canadian telecom prices are high by international standards due to the lack of real competition. With what I just talked about, this has started to change and it isn't over yet.
To deal with this the major telecoms will need to change their business strategy. Perhaps the BCE recent purchase in the US is an example of this. The problem for investors though is twofold - one...it will take time before we see the results...and...two...execution risk. Both of these risks translate into lower valuations for the company involved by the pros on The Street. The corollary is that if both these risks are dealt with by the company involved successfully then it provides a wondeful buying opportunity. Whether an investor buys early or not depends a lot on risk tolerance and confidence in management (execution risk).
For my part over the years, I look for the highest risk adjusted returns on my money across the universe of companies world-wide and so with the risks I mentioned above, right now there are many places where the risk adjusted returns are better. If BCE delivers then I would more than happy to establish a new core position in BCE.