RE:RE:CCD It is a very opaque industry, almost impossible to find current pricing but it looks like it is conservatively based on a few things we found and some additional comments made. We ran CCD though ChatGTP and it came back with with the following report which is a very interesting read in itself, not too mention forecasted pricing going out 10 Years. There is so little competition in the cesium space getting information has been challenging. Interest is there regardless so we just will watch and see how things develop.
Review of Technical Reports
1. Taron Technical Report (September 2017):
The 2017 technical report details the geological setting, exploration history, and initial resource assessments of the Taron deposit. Key insights include:
- Geological Setting: The Taron deposit lies at the boundary of the Eastern Cordilleran Ranges and Altiplano-Puna, hosted within the Ochaqui Basin. The region experienced epithermal metasomatism during the Miocene, leading to formations rich in cesium, rubidium, and other elements.
- Mineralogy: The deposit features cesium substituted into pharmacosiderite, with concentrations up to 12% Cs in mineralization zones. The 2017 drilling returned an average cesium grade of 1,400 ppm, highlighting significant enrichment.
- Resource Potential: The outcrop observed represents only a fraction of a larger deposit with a relief of 70 meters, indicating considerable untapped resources.
2. The Recovery of Cesium Salts from the Taron Deposit:
This report emphasizes the feasibility of extracting saleable cesium compounds, such as cesium hydroxide and cesium formate, from the mineralized material at Taron. Key points include:
- Extraction Techniques: Joint research with UBC demonstrated effective methods to recover cesium compounds from pharmacosiderite, suggesting a viable processing route.
- Economic Viability: Preliminary metallurgical testing suggests that processing at Taron could yield commercially attractive products, given suitable scale and optimization of recovery techniques.
- Associated Elements: The presence of rubidium and other elements like thallium, arsenic, and manganese implies potential by-products which could affect overall project economics.
Market and Geopolitical Factors Influencing Cesium Prices
Current Market Dynamics:
- Supply Constraints: Cesium is a scarce element, sourced predominantly from limited global suppliers. A new, large deposit like Taron could significantly alter supply dynamics.
- Demand Drivers: Key applications of cesium compounds in oil drilling, electronics, medical technologies, and emerging green technologies drive consistent demand.
- Price History: Historically, cesium compounds have seen high price volatility due to supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical factors.
Geopolitical and Economic Considerations:
- Argentina’s Mining Environment: Argentina is politically stable with a favorable policy for foreign investment in mining, though potential regulatory changes and environmental considerations remain factors.
- Global Trade Tensions: Rare earths and specialty metals face trade restrictions that can impact pricing, especially if major suppliers restrict exports.
- Technological Advances: Innovations in extraction and processing may reduce production costs, potentially lowering market prices if supply outpaces demand growth.
Ten-Year Price Forecast for Cesium (Per Ton)
Assumptions:
- Steady global economic growth and increasing demand for cesium-related technologies.
- Gradual expansion of supply from the Taron deposit and other potential sources.
- Moderate geopolitical stability in key mining regions, including Argentina.
- Incremental improvements in extraction and recovery technologies from pharmacosiderite.
Forecasted Price Trajectory:
| Year | Estimated Price per Ton (USD) | Key Influences |
| 2025 | $85,000 – $95,000 | Initial development, early production phases. |
| 2026 | $90,000 – $100,000 | Ramp-up in extraction processes. |
| 2027 | $95,000 – $105,000 | Increased market penetration, stable demand. |
| 2028 | $100,000 – $110,000 | Supply expansion balances demand growth. |
| 2029 | $105,000 – $115,000 | Technological improvements lower costs. |
| 2030 | $110,000 – $120,000 | New applications spur additional demand. |
| 2031 | $115,000 – $125,000 | Refinement of processing techniques. |
| 2032 | $120,000 – $130,000 | Potential geopolitical shifts cause volatility. |
| 2033 | $125,000 – $135,000 | Scale-up of Taron operations influences supply. |
| 2034 | $130,000 – $140,000 | Long-term contracts stabilize prices. |
Notes:
- The forecast assumes a gradual increase in cesium prices due to sustained demand growth, incremental production from Taron, and technological enhancements improving recovery yields.
- Price projections may fluctuate with unforeseen geopolitical events, regulatory changes, or breakthroughs in substitute materials.
Analysis of the Taron Deposit’s Impact on Cesium Price
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Resource Potential and Scale: The Taron deposit represents a significant source of cesium, with its high-grade pharmacosiderite zones indicating the potential for substantial cesium recovery. As extraction scales up, increased supply could moderate price spikes, but demand-side factors may offset these effects.
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Extraction Feasibility: The demonstrated ability to recover cesium hydroxide and formate solutions efficiently suggests that Taron could become a competitive supplier. Lower extraction costs over time due to technological refinements may pressure the cesium price downward initially, but limited global cesium availability supports a long-term upward trend.
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By-Product Synergies: The presence of rubidium and other valuable elements could provide additional revenue streams, offsetting costs and potentially leading to competitive pricing strategies that impact overall cesium market dynamics.
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Geopolitical Environment: Argentina's mining-friendly policies and relative political stability present an encouraging environment for the development of the Taron project. However, changes in trade policies or global market disruptions could introduce volatility in cesium pricing.
Conclusion
Based on an in-depth review of technical documents, geological assessments, and market analysis, the cesium market is poised for gradual price increases over the next decade, with the Taron deposit playing a pivotal role in balancing supply and demand. The price forecast reflects an upward trajectory influenced by growing demand, technological advancements in extraction and processing, and geopolitical factors. However, these projections are subject to change with shifts in market conditions, regulatory landscapes, and technological breakthroughs. Investors should continuously monitor these variables to refine their investment strategies regarding the Taron cesium project.