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Veren Inc T.VRN

Alternate Symbol(s):  VRN

Veren Inc. is a Canada-based oil producer with assets in central Alberta and southeast and southwest Saskatchewan. The principal activities of the Company are acquiring, developing and holding interests in petroleum and natural gas properties and assets related thereto through a general partnership and wholly owned subsidiaries. Its core operational areas include Kaybob Duvernay and Alberta Montney, Shaunavon and Viewfield Bakken. Its Kaybob Duvernay is situated in the heart of the condensate rich fairway, Central Alberta, which provides low risk drilling inventory. Its Alberta Montney assets sit adjacent to its Kaybob Duvernay lands, possessing similar resource characteristics including pay thickness and permeability in the volatile oil fairway of the reservoir. Its Shaunavon resource play is located in southwest Saskatchewan. The Viewfield Bakken light oil pool is located in Saskatchewan.


TSX:VRN - Post by User

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Post by Westcoastenergyon Jan 22, 2025 10:01am
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Post# 36414977

FWIW, Canaccord reiterates $12 target price

FWIW, Canaccord reiterates $12 target priceQ4 production in line with expectations while Montney assets drive meaningful organic reserves replacement Tuesday morning, VRN reported year-end 2024 reserves and provided a brief operational update. Q4/24 production of 188,721 boe/d was in line with our 188,221 boe/d forecast and the Street at 188,167 boe/d. Year-end 2024 2P reserves of 1,133 mmboe were ~5% lower y/y given the Flat Lake/Battrum dispositions in the year. Excluding the impact of the dispositions, this would imply an increase of ~4% over its 2023 reserves. The company has maintained its 2025 guidance of 188,000-196,000 boe/d on development capital expenditures of $1.48-1.58B. We reiterate our BUY rating and $12.00 target on VRN, which maps to a 2025E EV/DACF multiple of 4.4x. VRN currently trades at 3.2x 2025E EV/DACF, compared to the peer group average of 3.8x. Highlights from the release: Quarterly production results. Q4/24 production of 188,721 boe/d met expectations of 188,221 boe/d (CGe) and 188,167 boe/d (consensus). VRN exited 2024 with December production of 190,296 boe/d. Operations update. VRN brought two multi-well Montney pads online at Karr in December which were completed using a single point entry design. As the wells have yet to reach the 30-day threshold, no production data has been reported at this time. Year-end 2024 reserves. VRN reported year-end 2024 reserves of 333 mmboe (PDP +PDNP), 739 mmboe (1P), and 1,133 mmboe (2P). On a per-share basis, this reflects y/y declines of 12% (PDP +PDNP), 4% (1P), and 5% (2P) reflecting its dispositions in the year (~121 mmboe of 2P reserves). Excluding A&D activity (with meaningful dispositions in 2024), VRN organically replaced production by 173% (compared to 150% in 2023) on a 2P basis. This was primarily driven by its Alberta Montney asset contributing 65% of the reserve additions and the remaining coming from its Kaybob Duvernay asset. We note that VRN's 2P RLI is ~16 years despite over 65% of VRN's total premium drilling locations in its Kaybob Duvernay and Alberta Montney assets being unbooked. Net asset values. Using the third-party reserve engineers' price deck and our forecast year-end 2024 net debt of $2,473M, we calculate a PDP+PDNP NAV (BT-10%) of $5.21/ sh, 1P NAV (BT-10%) of $10.96/sh, and 2P NAV (BT-10%) of $18.39/sh. Board of Directors. VRN announced the appointment of Mr. Corey Bieber and Ms. Jodi Jenson Labrie to its Board of Directors. Outlook and estimate changes. The company reiterated its 2025 guidance of annual average production of 188,000-196,000 boe/d (65% liquids) weighted to H2/25 based on timing of its development program and planned facilities downtime in early 2025. Capital spending guidance of $1.48-1.58B is also unchanged and weighted primarily to H1/25. Our estimate changes are summarized in Figure 2. Valuation and recommendation. We reiterate our BUY rating on VRN and target price of $12.00, which maps to a 2025E EV/DACF multiple of 4.4x. VRN currently trades at 3.2x 2025E EV/DACF, compared to the peer group average of 3.8x
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