BBDB859 wrote: Hey Nobody.
Thanks for chimming in. So from what you are saying then.
It's similar to what I was saying regarding the USMCA. In that, if Trump
cancels the USMCA today, then he is breaching the contract before it's signed duration, of 2026? Excellent. Then he, or the USA, could probably be liable to pay the costs incurred to Canada for it's losses in Revenue for the duration of the contract? If the USA arbitrarily defaults or cancels its signed USMCA?
And if Canada can win its case? What if Canada chooses to sue the US for breach of the USMC, for the reasons of Trumps Tarrifs, after Trump impliments them earlier than 2026 (which is expected on Feb 1), and Canada does NOT put any Tarrifs on the US goods during the term? Can Canada do that? Because then we also sue for losses of Revenues, for the duration of the contract from the Trump Tarrifs time? It's a given that we can also do the same (put Tarrifs) for the duration of the contract, without breach. Sorry I'm putting you to work here pal. And my limited knowledge says,
YES we can sue if we don't reciprocate with Tarrifs, and take the losses of the Revs. Which probably is a smart thing to do. That way we don't get hostility from the USA.
S
o the quicker we know as a country, what directionTrump wants to go with Tarrifs. The quicker we can take action, correct?
So that we can find other sources of Trading partners, and reliable ones, in the world for our products slowly. So, the way I see this then is, that we have 2 years to get cracking to find good new customers for our Lumber, Oil, Nat. Gas, and electricity. Unfortunately eletricity is not transferable over Oceans, unless someone here knows any differently.
Of course we're now back to RE-NEGOTIATE with the USA if it wants to too? But we have to protect ourselves too. Plus we have time till the USMCA expires in 2026, to find other customers to trade with. Hey, we have
a good start with the Trans Mountain completed. And also we can play it coy with our electricity with the USA as well, until we're able to solve our oil problem. Cheers
NoNameAtAll wrote: Thought I would jump in on this post (and, yes, I am a lawyer). The thing with the tarriffs and treaties is that it is more complicated than a domestic legal contract. For a domestic legal constract, you can seek and recover judgement because there is a government which made the laws and the courts will enforce those laws. For international disputes, there is the concept of soverntity. There is no international government that gets to make rules for countries. Each country makes their own rules. A soverign country can do whatever it pleases, subject to the risk that a bigger soverign country will come along and trounce them. A treaty between countries is a form of international rules, but it only had enforcability in the country signing if the country decides that it wants to continue to be bound by it. Countries cancel treaties, at their will, all the time. Trump just removed US from the Paris climate treaty.
The value often found in trade agreements is that they sometimes provide investors/companies of the countries involved with the right to sue the other country for breach. When that happens, the only choice the other country has is to either accept the outcome of the agreement, or throw the whole agreement out and escape any responsibility. if a country is sued, does not cancel the agreement and also does not pay, then the country on the other side could seize the second countries assets located in their territory to satisfy the judgment (could you imagine Canada trying to sieze US government assets????).
In this case, Trump could cancel the whole thing tomorrow, regardless of what is written in the agreement. It is clear from all our politicians that they don't want to be in a situation with no agreement. So, if he demands to negotiate a new one or he will cancel the existing one, then we will negotiate a new one. After all, that is how we got from NAFTA to the USMCA.
There is nobody to complain to as that is how international order works. People are now starting to see around the world countries exercising their soverignty by doing whatever they please and daring others to force them to stop. While it may seem nasty, that is exactly what soverignty is. (fyi, it does then make one realize that there are some contries/peoples to claim to be soverign, but are not really because they have no ability to do whatever they want without being trounced). No sense complaining that a country is breaking the "rules" as countries have no rules that they have to follow (unless they agree to follow rules for a while).
All this to say is that Trump will do whatever he wants and unless someone thinks they can stand up to the US to stop them, he is perfectly entitled to. Not that I like the result, as I am long on BBD, but at least I am not kidding myself about how things work. So, if Trump wants to renegotiate, we will renegotiate. very simple.