Tinley Beverage Company Inc C.TNY

2019 musings/ looking ahead to 2020 (wrning long&meandering)

[Jmgreen]

Over all I would say I'm disappointed with where we are as a company at the end of 2020, with milestone after milestone missed, this time last year I definitely thought by end of year we would be further ahead. That being said I am optimistic about the progress made in the last few months. I've sat on shares (and actually accumulated) for the last 4 years, I've never really had any hard timelines as they were always having to deal with things I could reasonably write off as out of their control. While there are still things out of their control like Covid and a miriad of unknowns, these things will be faced by all other companies I consider putting my money in. Just a little context to where I am in terms of a Tinley investor, I have a large position in TNY (probably not the biggest on here but certainly not the smallest), enough that although it doesn't make up the majority of my portfolio it is my 2nd largest single holding and I have enough that the swings either way are noticeable in my overall net worth.
So now here it is, as much as it would pain me to get out before Tinley sees it's vision through, I now have a timeline that I expect to see some tangeble milestones.

Six months, two quarters; come July there are certain things I expect to see in order for Tinley to continue to keep my investment.

Firstly, copackers. I don't need twelve but what I do need to see is the one that is supposed to put Tinley on the map. I appreciate there is a lot that goes into signing these deals but 6 months seems like enough time to finalize deals you've been talking about for a year.

Secondly (this isn't really in Tinley's control however the forementioned copacker putting us on the map would help), once Biden is in office and the new AG is nominated I really hope to see Tinley part of any greenrush that may or may not happen.

Thirdly, Canada. This expansion needs to happen and product needs to be available for sale in the relatively short term.

Fourthly, revenue! I'm not sure what numbers would make me happy, but I expect a significant increase in Q over Q revenue numbers. Not necessarily profit, but expanding revenue showing growth.

I really think Tinley for the first time is in do or die mode. The next six months will be very telling. Right now we have no idea how anything is selling, we have no idea how many dispensories are stocking it, we can't even use the whole ganjarunner tracking that some were doing since Hightimes delivery won't show inventory that way. What we do know is Tinley is only selling the Rum, Whiskey and Ameretto, not the Coffee cask and NONE of the single serves. We know the single serves were delayed but they are now one month post announced production. How long does it take to get product on the Hightimes delivery platform (honest question I really don't know). What I do know is with covid lockdowns in much of Cali having a delivery option is more important than ever. One thing that may also skew my timeline one way or another is how we do in the Cannabis Cup. If Tinley can win (with more compitetion) that will show we are still one of the best in class products and that gives Jeff and Rick more ammo to sell. If we don't even place it will show me that all the time the company has taken has let others come in and possibly overtake us.

Beckett's, still not entirely sold on this category but there is no doubt it has peaked the attention of many (so I suppose I am sold on the market, just not the reason behind it, call me old school). The problem is that it has peaked the interest of others and with no barriers to entry and infinitely more money and resources than we have I'm not sure Tinley will be able to succeed here as much as they hope. Does that mean they shouldn't try, no of course not, from what I can tell there is very little extra work for Tinley and the potential for large growth. But this is a place were Tinley's lack of money will really hurt them.

And lastly Rick needs to stay with the company. I have no issues with Jeff but this is his baby and he would likely stay with a sinking ship if it ever came to that. Rick has all the credentials to get another opportunity to make likely more money than Tinley is paying. So as long as he sees Tinley as a place to invest his time (and money ) I see that as a big positive.

Do I think Tinley can pull this off? Yes, otherwise I would sell now, but do I think I need to start looking at Tinley as a startup that may or may not make it, well ask me again in 180 days.

[pungentaroma]

Well said JM. You are speaking for many on here now. I'm in th same boat.Either Tinley starts to execute in a much bigger way or this team can not get the job done.  We've given them ample time to produce and so far we have seen 1 disappointment after another. Some not their fault but some definitely the fault of mistakes on the company's actions. As for your 6 month timeline, I

[cosinus180]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[pungentaroma]

Don't know where you've been but I've commented about Tinley for over 4 years and I've been open and honest on my feelings and beliefs of how this company has progressed.  They are not perfect but they hsave achieved a lot. We are now t the pint where they either move to the next level or they get left behind. 

[Jmgreen]

Yes, six months is more for revenue, I would like to see 2 quarters of revenue after LBF is up and running, after all LBF and co-packers is what has been preached by the company as our goal and when we would start to move. As far as letting us know who these copackers are I agree with you, we need to hear something in short order. I really feel like I need to see something from them leading up to

[cosinus180]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Jmgreen]

Maybe I shouldn't have said clearly, as the Basher term is fairly subjective. But I would put it this way, a Basher posts overwhelmingly negative posts, as a quick glance at your posts will show. Anyone who has shares and constantly bashes the stock either doesn't fully understand the concept of investing (ie why be involved in a stock you feel so negatively about), is shorting the stock