Tocvan traded 64,300 shares on Friday to close at $0.61. Overall, there was strong buying throughout the week with 319,000 shares trading, moving from $0.52 last Friday to close over $0.60 this week. I noticed a subtle shift in trading with Anonymous starting to buy more shares near the end of the week. I also noticed that the sell orders have begun to thin as Tocvan gets closer to releasing over 700 assays, re-starting their drilling program, and advancing development of a 50,000 ton pilot mine.
I view these subtle shifts mentioned above as very positive.
Tocvan hasn't put out news for over a month since September 10, except for the detailed interview with Brodie Sutherland by Atrium Research. I suspect we are due for news soon. Brodie is attending a conference this week in Mexico to meet with the "Major" who has conducted over 6 weeks of due diligence, as well I think he is presenting at the conference.
I think everyone will agree that sentiment is very high in the stock market as evidenced by indexes in both the US and Canada pushing record highs. The bullish nature of the markets tends to make people feel good and more willing to buy equities rather than sell.
There are many opinions as to how long this trend will continue, since this continued push upward almost seems to defy gravity (literally straight up since 2010). The older established traders feel the market is due for a correction, whereas others say there is plenty of room for growth in emerging sectors such as Bitcoin, AI, marijuana, among others.
I first started investing in Tocvan after the acquisition of Pilar in 2020. Recently I have felt like I am watching a two-ring circus, on one side is Tocvan Ventures, and on the other side is the rising price of gold. Running between the two rings are a number of illusions trying to get my attention, i.e., happy and sad clowns, political posturing, inflation, and economic uncertainty.
There was an article in our local newspaper titled, "Gold could be the last safe haven standing". Gold could become the "last perceived safe asset standing" predicted analysts who see the yellow metal hitting US $3,000. The fear of fiscal policies in the United States and beyond may not be sustainable, pushing the Bank of America to question whether "gold is a safer investment than Treasuries".
Gold futures basically finished at record highs on Friday, up $28 to close at $2,735. This upward trend seems to be continuing in aftermarkets this weekend. A decision will be made soon as to whether BRICS will back their currency with 40% gold, if they move in this direction, this should start to have a more profound impact on the supply and demand of gold, which I think will eventually push the price of gold higher. Russia will hold the BRICS Summit in Kazan next week (October 22 to 24).
Literally every bank and country is buying and selling gold, even Costco (who by the way are selling between $100M to $200 M in gold bars monthly). These powerful movements in the World have created the perfect recipe for a "good old fashioned BULL junior resource market".
I can start to see $3,000 in sight by year-end and perhaps higher next year.
To take advantage of rising gold prices, companies are frantically re-structuring and financing - exploration and drilling are at a fever pitch.
I believe that it is only a matter of time before the higher price of gold will translate into speculation in less expensive gold resource stocks. The vast majority of gold is produced by just a handful of mining companies, for example, Newmont ranked number 1 produces about 5.5 M oz of gold per year, whereas the number 10 ranked company, Freeport McMoran, only produces about 1.71 M oz per year. Barrick is the number 2 producer at 4.05 M tons, but their production has been in steady decline over the last 20 years.
Every company that has capacity to increase gold production is taking advantage of the rising price of gold. The World's production of gold has steadily gone up over the last four years. However, there is a limit as to how much gold can be produced by mines currently in operation due to expansion constraints and the finite size of their resource. It is the supply and demand for gold that will ultimately determine its price. I believe it is these robust market conditions that will ultimately open opportunities for investment in exploration.
My experience suggests if the price of gold continues to rise as the market demand seems to suggest, the value proposition to invest in junior resource companies will be too compelling to resist. In the BULL resource markets that I have experienced, the Fear-of-Missing Out (FOMO) will begin to spread as stock prices strengthen, i.e. lower priced stocks will get rapidly snapped up as prices move higher.
It is the continued upward movement of stock prices that were once cheap that drives people to get on the train and start buying tickets. There is a famous saying, "the train is about to leave the station". I believe this might be true this time after a couple of false starts over the last 4 years.
As I have said many times before, Tocvan is in a "Sweet Spot".
They have already gone through the hard work of putting together and advancing a land package that will be attractive to a buyout, especially if gold continues higher. Whether a buyout happens before production starts is the million dollar question. One thing is certain, there will be a number of important milestones over the next several months that will determine its future.