My Comment: There is so much incompetence in government. Biden is hell bent on destroying the country and he's doing a good job of it. Trump would be an unmitigated disaster both domestically and geopolitically. And the Fed has made an economic mess of the economy after 35 years of reckless monetary policies. Former Fed governor Warsh offered some sane comments on the Fed this past week (Excerpted from https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2024/03/weekly-commentary-on-currency-watch.html):
For posterity, former Fed Governor (and often named future Fed Chair candidate) Kevin Warsh was interviewed Monday by CNBC’s Becky Quick:
“Process matters. Institutions matter. I’m a little less impressed about the strength of the U.S. economy today. The Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve – for the best of intentions, I’m sure – are goosing this economy… Massive government deficits at times of prosperity. A Fed promising to cut rates even as asset prices are melting up - looser policy. The rest of the world, especially our allies and adversaries, look at us, and maybe they’re impressed by GDP growth. Maybe they’re impressed by the stock market. But I wouldn’t say they’re overly impressed by the U.S. economic engine. The engine seems like it’s being stimulated even at a time of full employment.”
“The first thing I’d suggest is that the 19 people around the table spend more time thinking about – and describing – what are the factors that can affect inflation. I’ll say I’m a little puzzled by what their framework really is. We were led to believe last year that inflation was really services inflation and wage inflation. The new index they trotted out showed that services ex-housing is growing above 4%, so we haven’t heard about that for a while. Listen, I am sympathetic to their challenge in trying to navigate this economy as the world is on fire. But I think pre-committing, as they do in these series of dots – each person saying how many times they’d cut three, six, nine months from now – I think it’s deeply counterproductive. Now, for financial markets, it productive. Asset prices are melting up. But they’re taking big risks with inflation. So, if you’re living off your W2 income, they’re asking for inflation to move back higher. And I think some of the data suggests it is. But, of course, if you have a large balance sheet this is all a ‘great parting’. But ultimately what happens to hard working Americans matters more.”
wrt the national debt:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-us-interest-hit-16-trillion-year-end-making-it-largest-us-government-outlay
Excerpt:
"Unchanged rates/yields & debt trend next 12 months & US refinancing rate is 4.4% and annual interest costs jump from $1.1tn to $1.6tn..."
My Comment: How much longer can the Fed keep rates at 4% before it causes problems in the bond market due to Treasury issuance and more regional bank depositor bailouts due to CRE ?