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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Duluth Metals Ltd DULMF

GREY:DULMF - Post Discussion

Duluth Metals Ltd > Right conclusion maybe but the wrong question
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Post by materialsgirl on Sep 05, 2014 5:04pm

Right conclusion maybe but the wrong question

estebancaballo
2.5 stars

You gave the opinion that copper prices and nickel prices should rise in the future due to demand. This could be true. It will all depend on how big an annual increase there will be on the supply side. Nobody knows. Iron ore demand is rising and prices are collapsing and will likely be very low for years or decades due to the big 3 players boosting output. Yes, Nickel is a special case due to Indonesia. PGMs are also a special case due to 80% of the stuff coming from 2 places.

If your thesis is that copper prices will go up that is a very good reason to invest in some copper companies. It is not a reason to invest in DM or any old copper company.

DM might be a bad choice amongst copper companies in a high price environment. I am not saying that it is or that it is not.

The question you need to ask yourself is this. If copper prices rise, is DM the right company to be invested in? Or are there better choices. Keep in mind that virtually all analysts are using ~$2.75 as a long term copper price.

Most early stage companies or small companies that are doing badly devote most of their powerpoint presentation to exciting industry selected data. This avoids spending too much time on the inherent shortcomings in their own business model. Always be wary of a company with too many slides about the industry.

mat
Comment by estebancaballo on Sep 05, 2014 6:03pm
I appreciate your thoughtful reply and input, M. The fact that analysts are using $2.75 or any other number as a long term copper price does not impress me one bit. As you are very much aware, analysts are like weather men....don't take any long term forecast from them seriously as they have no more idea of where prices will be in the long term than you or I. As for whether DM is a good ...more  
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