Post by
no1coalking on Jan 28, 2008 1:06pm
China Needs more Coal:
China suspends coal exports, sources say some deliveries likely
Singapore (Platts)--28Jan2008
Severe coal shortages, caused by an elongated cold snap, has forced China's
Ministry of Communications to suspend the export of coal during the Spring
Festival period and the Two-Conference period, which concludes on March 15,
the MOC said late January 25.
However, industry sources close to the situation told Platts Monday that it is
still quite likely that some Chinese coal will be delivered in Q1 2008 to
Asian customers.
Two Chinese coal traders said they have not received any official notice of a
halt in thermal coal exports. One trader said it is likely that thermal coal
exports will be cut in Q1 2008, but will not be completely stopped.
"I don't think China will really stop exports. At most exports will be
limited. And besides, there is no official confirmation yet about the order to
stop exports," a Chinese coal trader told Platts Monday.
Several Asian buyers have expressed concern about the reports that Beijing
ordered a halt in exports, but have been assuaged when informed that Chinese
exporters can be expected to deliver coal even on a limited basis.
China's Ministry of Railways also issued a notice January 24 giving top
priority to thermal coal transportation to such coal shortage provinces as
Ningxia, Anhui, Hubei and Zhejiang.
A Japanese power utility source told Platts that Chinese thermal coal buyers
in Japan have been informed by industry group Japan Coal Development about
reports on the website of China's rail transport authority about a halt in
exports from February 1 to March 15.
He said JCD is still trying to officially confirm the report as China Coal has
not sent its Japanese customers an official declaration of non-deliveries from
February 1 to March 15.
A source in Taiwan said Chinese exporters have yet to officially declare plans
not to deliver between February 1 and March 15, although the two companies,
Shenhua and China Coal which export coal to Taiwan Power, Formosa Plastics and
Hoping Power have verbally informed the Taiwanese companies about the
government's decision to suspend exports over the aforementioned period.
Prior to the announcement, an Asian coal buyer said it dispatched a panamax
vessel to one of the Chinese coal ports to take delivery of contracted
material. The vessel has already arrived in China, but it is not yet unknown
whether coal is being loaded onto the ship.
According to China's Ministry of Communications figures, the combined coal
stocks at 355 key power plants with direct coal feeds from railroads total
19.68 million mt January 22, marginally above the warning limit of 18.90
million mt.
Coal stocks at over 60 power plants are currently running at just over three
days of power generation. On January 23 coal stocks at China's top three coal
reception ports, namely Shanghai, Ningbo and Guangzhou, totalled 210,000 mt,
680,000 mt, and 1.43 million mt respectively, MOC figures show.
Coal stocks at China?s top three coal despatching ports, namely Qinhuangdao,
Tianjin and Huanghua stood at 'normal levels' the MOC said - at around 5.22
million mt, 3.14 million mt and 960,000 mt respectively.
Heavy snowfalls across China have prompted officials to declare a level two
weather alert with several provinces affected including Jiangxi, Hunan and
Guizhou. Meteorological services have said that the blizzards are expected to
last for the remainder of this week which is expected to stretch existing coal
supplies even further.
In light of the recent long stretch of bitterly cold weather which has
resulted in much stronger coal demand across the country, the National
Development and Reform Commission last week directed coal mining provinces to
prioritize their coal shipments to power generators and also warned coal
producers not to take advantage of the current shortages by hiking coal
prices.
The Spring Festival period runs roughly from the last two weeks of January
2008 to the first two weeks of February 2008. The Two Conferences (the
National People's Congress and the People's Political Consultative Conference)
usually runs from early March to mid-March 2008, China's coal export market
can be expected to remain quiet for a total of 30-40 days, sources told
Platts.
In the January 25 release, the MOC directed that all seaports should give top
priority to the transportation of such key materials as thermal coal, food and
other agricultural products. It warned that if these orders are not followed,
those in charge will face severe disciplinary punishment.
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