Post by
no1coalking on Feb 08, 2008 11:04am
FT. UNION & EEE
Ft. Union Capacity
Don't get too focused on that Ft. Union plant. Nobody can argue that it should be running at full capacity, but you need to look at the big picture. The #1 job of that pilot plant was to produce large product samples for prospective customers. It has accomplished that mission, and it can continue to do so in the near future. After those new plants start coming on line, the importance of that Ft. Union will start to fade, especially in the eyes of investors. If I were Collins, I wouldn't invest another nickel into getting that A processor running. Ft. Union has ALWAYS been referred to as their "pilot plant", and despite all its shortcomings, it still produces adequate amounts of K-fuel.
There is little doubt that Arch would like to build a very large K-fuel plant at their Coal Creek mine. After that new plant gets up and running, perhaps two years down the road, what incentive will Evergreen have to keep the Ft. Union plant alive? Their business model has always been to sell this technology to others, and collect royalties. In the future it would be much easier for Evergreen to contract Arch to produce product samples, and a deal like that could be signed BEFORE the new Arch plant is built. (i.e., Arch will get some kind of concession on the new plant if they allow Evergreen to use one of the processors on demand to produce product samples for prospective customers.)
Don't forget that the reason to buy this stock is to MAKE MONEY, not provide lifetime job security for Ft. Union employees. Despite all their past "false starts", it now sounds like these Evergreen guys are REAL close to getting that first big plant deal. With roughly 20 million shares shorted, those holding short position are going to get squeezed real hard when that first big deal is announced, I am confident of that.