Espial Group Inc ESPAF

2018: SaaS Model Ramp Could Lead to a Doubling in Price...

[TallerCraig]

I will be honest, I wasn’t always a believer in the ESP.TO story after they lost the Rogers contract as a RCI.B sub their netbox is terrible they should of bought ESP.TO but I digress. The cost structure ballooned without the Elevate SaaS revenues not hitting the incomes statement. Well Things have Changed!!!
 
Value of Elevate SaaS Platform

This is what it is all about, using that 2M Subscriber number at a value of $10/year per sub that is incremental revenue of 20M. The scary thing is if you put a 4x Sales valuation on those subs for a high margin recurring revenue model that is incremental value of 80M or 2.20/share more than the market cap of the entire company!!!

The initial customer rollout has just started launching their SaaS model, the current run rate SaaS revenue is a lot higher then the number they put up in Q4. Just look at all the customer wins they have announced since Q4 ended. Deferred revenue at YE up 62% YoY to 3.3M from 2.0M

Given that they already have a global customer base with 7M+ subs if they were to rollout the Elevate platform across their entire sub base the numbers and value starts to multiply.
 
Confidence Returning in Management

Big thing for me is that they realized cost were out of control. Announced 6M in cuts in operational costs planned for 2018. That alone takes them to EBITDA positive even with no incremental revenue growth!!!

Management is right there with the rest of us shareholders. If you look at the Weighted Average Exercise Price of Options is 2.17/share with the bulk exercisable at 2.85/share. 

They have every incentive to get the share price higher from current levels.
With 39M in cash or 1.07/share I think management should be buying back every available share that they can as they will be EBITDA positive in short order and return excess capital to shareholders.
 
Projecting Out

Assuming they continue to ramp their SaaS revenue 20% QoQ as they bring on existing subs and win new clients to 7.5M in revenue I think a 40M revenue number is easily achievable and ramping to 10M+ in SaaS revenues for 2019 has to be in sight. Increasing high margin revenue while cost structure leans out is a perfect combination for a rocketing share price.
 
Valuation

The cash sitting on the balance sheet makes the stock so cheap. On an EV/Sales basis using a 4x SaaS sales and 1x Support and Services revenue you are looking at a valuation 0.5x EV/Sales . Looking for only a 2-2.5x EV/Sales target price gets me to 3.40 – 4.30/share or 3.85/share at the midpoint or 90% upside!!!
 
Started a positive late Friday as it FINALLY closed above 200DMA.
 
LONG

[barneyj44]

Excellent post TallerCraig, very impressed with the effort you put in, thank you .

[barack]

When Espial acquired WHS from Arris the agreement was that they had to fund it for 18 months. they survived it in good shape without draining the cash balance.