Post by
Dxm476 on Feb 10, 2021 9:18am
5-6 dollars plus in 2021.
Currently trading at $1.25 as of February 5th, Brickell Biotech’s stock has potential to hit $5+ by late-March and $30+ by EOY. Let’s dive into why: BBI has been quite dormant due to lack of PR & recent non-compliance on NASDAQ. Typically, people holding stocks similar to BBI are penny stock enthusiasts just looking to get rich quick — I’m not a fan of that, but I believe there is honest value here. With an upcoming quarterly earnings announcement set for March 17th, I believe we could see a wave of new investors very soon. So who is Brickell? Preclinical companies typically take 10 years to first pharmaceutical release. Brickell Biotech started in 2011 and after the dedicated development, they are on pace to hit that average. Their first drug, BBI-4000, was out-licensed to Kaken in Japan with rights to develop and commercialize in Asian markets. Kaken received approval in Japan faster than BBI did in the US. Set to begin sales (named EccLock) as of November, BBI receives royalties on any sales. No info is out on what the royalties look like other than they are tiered at milestones and different among the various Asian markets they sell. Earnings will reveal just how much they take away from the deal. This is our first milestone — mid-March. In addition, BBI will likely finish clinical trials this quarter. Once approved, they can commercialize BBI-4000 in the US. Based on the management of Brickell, I would expect when the drug is approved for commercialization in the US, Brickell will out-license to a larger pharmaceutical corporation to perform this for them. It is not uncommon to see deals of this sort strike around $1 billion. That could mean they will see the money much sooner than commercializing it themselves. That is the second milestone. These two projected milestones gave Wall Street analysts confidence to issue two ‘Buy’ ratings with price targets of $5.00 and $6.00 per share. After those ratings came out, Brickell received an additional in-license contract for a Covid vaccine from Japanese firm, Anges. Anges is the furthest-along DNA-based vaccine in development as of now. DNA vaccines works a lot like RNA vaccines, but have some important benefits. Among those are more stability which opens doors for shipping to places that cold storage is difficult to reach. It also can be adapted to mutated strains significantly faster than RNA vaccines. This drug is not expected to be completed with Japanese clinical trials until Q4 of this year — however, we should see news on the timeline on February 4th (chatter of Japanese Gov funding — 3rd milestone). As of now we do not know efficacy rate, etc. of this. BBI will not begin trials of this drug until results are out from Anges. If they do pursue development upon positive results, they have the right to commercialize in the Western countries. Though this is far out, the DNA-aspect means it is a good candidate for annual covid vaccines beyond the current pandemic. Think — annual flu shots. Best part: this covid ploy is not wrapped into the $5.50/share projections from Wall Street. Talk of $30/share is what some have thrown around — I have no support for that figure but this company has witnessed stock prices higher than that $30-range in the past. So this is a completely credible guess. Now for looking at the management. They just hired former Eli Lily Exec, Robert Brown, as CEO. Eli Lily is an industry leader in pharmaceuticals. Insider purchase activity has been strong as of recent. Lastly, finances. As mentioned BBI dropped from a high of low-$30s and a 52-week high of about $4. How did we get here then? Brickell dropped below $1 after funding to complete clinical trials was uncertain. After an additional offer to raise capital was issued, that price further plummeted. The only good part here is they now have funding to complete development of BBI-4000 if all goes well. Future funding should be covered by royalties from EccLock in Japan. This news brought the stock above $1, and as of last month has regained NASDAQ compliance. With short volume low on this stock and major milestones coming up for 2021, this stock has huge potential to make investors very wealthy. I'm long.
Comment by
Dxm476 on Feb 10, 2021 9:19am
Sorry about the bad background there. When I copied it it took the black with it...