Sometimes trading can be unfathomableConcensus earning per share estimate before GPRE announced was 97 cents and they squashed that fantasy like a vodka-filled watermelon run over by a Volkswagen at $1.26! Their earnings for the last quarter were 65 cents a share! Not surprisingly, the stock went vertical for the first hour or so of trading and then - while I was sleeping, I actually got kicked out on a trailing 5% stop after the peak - when the share price defied logic and swooped back down to the 'nonsense' level where I will now look to re-purchase.
According to their news conference, 2014 is all set up to hum along on all twelve cylinders - churning out product with more than $300 million sitting in their kitty and most of their product locked in at prices that will make their bonus checks all look sickening come Xmas. They expect earnings to be the same throughout the year or even better than this past quarter. They also expect all their net debt to be completely erased by the end of 2015.
Even I can do the math in my head...projected 2014 earnings should be: 4 x 65 cents per diluted share = $2.60!!! And I suspect they are being conservative! If the numbers hold true, that means that their 2014 earnings will be more than double their best earnings in company history.
I know there was a big short position hanging over the stock and I also read more than one news article in the past month suggesting the stock was over-priced, but every single one of those goofs should now be sent to the corner with a pointed had perched on his head. I would love to hear an explanation that makes some sense of it from someone more deep-thinking than me, but until then - I'll just wrap the enigma in a conumdrum, surround it in mystery and file it all under unfathomable.