Post by
drunk@noon on Sep 21, 2021 12:55pm
The big news over the past month isn't the fleeting flush
production from the latest well---the hudge news is that they have discovered as a result of the core samples from the water disposal well and this latest well, has resulted in proof of an addional 20 feet of net pay, which equates to a slam dunk of atleast 100 milllion barrels of recoverable reserves---which always made sense considering the production profile of similar fields in the area.<br /> This means they can support the 20-25,000 bodp's of production for serverals years, fol.lowed by 15,000 plus for several years after that, then 10,0000 bodp for a long time. Further more, what makes the 100 mill recoveralb reserves even more valuable is the small cap ex it requires to drain the reserves. 20-25 wells at 11-12 million per pop to harness 100 million barrels that now cashflow over $40 dollars a barrel cdn means 4 billion---billion. That's with only a 32 dollar US netback. Take off a third for taxes and royalties and the 4 billion is 2.7 billion cdn cashflow after taxes, minus the 17b more wells at 12 million a piece---200 million and say another 100 mill maintance cap ex and you are talking 2.4 billion dollars. 950 million full diluted shares and you are talking $2.50 CDN share price. Now you have to discount that to get to a current instrinsic NAV valution. So cut the the shareprice in half---and you get $1.25 cdn a share. THAT IS WHAT IS AT STAKE HERE-----AS LONG AS THE ROOF DOESN'T CAVE IN IN PERU. THIS IS WHY I HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT NONSENSICAL SELLING OVER THE LAST MONTH.