Oil's price rebound from a mid-December low is on track to return oil back to its bull run that started in 2020 that took oil to $123/bbl last June before the United States started releasing oil from their Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to artificially supress the price of oil.
Releasing oil from the SPR is akin to shorting a stock. It artificially supresses prices. Borrowing an asset like stock, oil, or anything else is a loan that has to be repaid or will go to zero in default. The United States will have to buy oil on the open market to replace the SPR oil or not replace it or even withdraw more oil more oil from the SPR (throw good money after bad).
The oil price is on track to return to its bull run because release of SPR oil did nothing more than mask fundamentals that were underlying a supply deficit and oil's bull run to begin with. Not only are those fundamental's intact but they are getting a lot worse.
"The incorrect narrative provided by mainstream media (MSM) is that climate change is our worst problem. To lessen this problem, citizens need to move quickly away from fossil fuels and transition to renewables. The real narrative is that we are running short of fossil fuels that can be profitably extracted, and renewables are not adequate substitutes. However, this narrative is too worrisome for most people to handle."
Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World, 16 December 2022
For the last year and a half OPEC+ has been uable to meet its own production quotas and rising oil rig count has had limited impact on increasing shale oil production.
For every unit of oil energy producers extract they are having to imput ever more units of energy greatly reducing the ratio of energy input to energy output. Producers are having to drill in ever deeper water, having to drill ever more hoziontal shale wells to offset declining results, having to use water flooding and chemicals to coax more oil out of the ground. There are thousands of well researched, factual papers detailing the decline of profitably extractive oil. The research has not been reported in the main stream media. Higher and higher oil prices are needed to squeeze every more out of the earth. Much like wringing water out of a cloth requires ever more energy to squeeze the last drop out.
Absence of reporting in the main stream media and the United States release of SPR oil has masked over the situation and attention to the underlying fundamental problem causing a rise in energy costs was also deflected by accusing Russia for the rise in prices that were occurring long before they invaded the Ukraine.
Western sanctions on Russia have served only to excaberate what was already a deteriorating situation. Under sanctions Russian production is falling with withdrawal of western services and equipment. Sanctions barring shippers to haul russian oil over $60/bbl and barring insurance on those ships has hampared russian oil getting to market.
Russia has now proposed to cut production which will support the price on russian oil that is getting to market.
The United States is stopping SPR oil releases. With that oil no long bolstering supplies the price of oil has shot up in the last two weeks.
The United States claims it will refill the reserve. That would add to global demand that has been growing and widen the supply deficit even farther. That will raise prices which is what happens when shorted stock get repaid (covered) with share buy back to replace the shares that were borrowed to being with to short (sell down the price of shares in a company).
If anything they will never be able to resupply the reserve and may very well dip back into the reserve again to double down on a failing strategy to reduce prices to appease an electorate.
If there is a chance of oil prices getting high enough for producers to risk long term capital investments to increase the supply of oil that possibility is all the less likely with the imposition of windfall taxes. Stealing profits only incentives producers to curtail capital investments even farther than what they have been doing over the last number of years. They see the handwriting on the wall.
Forcast
Expect the price of oil to go way beyond $123/bbl in the very near term.