Air Canada T.AC

Still heavily shorted and due for a squeeze

[Nordico]

42% of traded shares in first half of August were short-sales. This is still heavily shorted and will squeeze hard when AC makes the deal with pilots union.

[69rooster]

Regardless of the reasonableness, or lack thereof, of the demands of the pilots, the strike vote closes soon.  It will probably be a high percentage of votes in favour of a strike.   Expect a lock out or strike Sept 17th.

[Nordico]

No one expects the pilots to vote no to a strike. If they do then reach the point of a strike on the 17th, the gov will likely force binding arbitration.

[jjwilson]

"If they do then reach the point of a strike on the 17th, the gov will likely force binding arbitration." By what process?  The Supreme Court has decided the right ot strike is a constitutional right.  

[Nordico]

By declaring it an essential service for Canada (differentiated from Westjet and the recent mechanics strike because of AC's much more substantial routes and operations).

[jjwilson]

"By declaring it an essential service for Canada (differentiated from Westjet and the recent mechanics strike because of AC's much more substantial routes and operations)." If the railroads aren't essential AC won't be either.  Remember, Jazz will still fly, Westjet will still fly, Porter will still fly.  If there is a strike or lockout AC, it's shareholders

[Nordico]

Good points. Although I think shareholders would only take a 'huge hit' if a strike/lockout were to last more than a couple days.

[jjwilson]

"Good points. Although I think shareholders would only take a 'huge hit' if a strike/lockout were to last more than a couple days." Longterm I'm quite optomistic.  I'm prepared for a work stoppage of more than a few days and associated hit to the shareprice.  I expect a significant drop to the SP when (if) there is lockout or strike notice given and then a

[JetTechYYZ]

It's happened in the past 2012 with both the pilots and the IAM, Lisa Raitt prevented any job action and arbitration on the collective agreements was forced upon these unions.  https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/arbitrator-sides-with-air-canada-in-labour-dispute-with-pilots-1.898600

[jjwilson]

"It's happened in the past 2012 with both the pilots and the IAM, Lisa Raitt prevented any job action and arbitration on the collective agreements was forced upon these unions." Possibly but in 2015 the Supreme Court made a ruling that the ability to strike is a consitutional right.  There may very well be some mechanism for forced abitration but not in the same way or as